Editorial
Somalia: War clouds over Mogadishu [editorial]
By
May 5, 2009 - 12:45:35 PM

SUNDAY EDITORIAL | Sheikh Aweys called on all Islamist groups to fight against the government, saying he was at war with the the international community.

Fears of an all-out war between the 'Government of National Unity' and Islamist insurgents has been growing since the hard-line Islamist leader, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, returned to Mogadishu on 23 April. But the fears became more imminent Sunday, after Sheikh Aweys ruled out any dialogue with the Somali government led by Somali President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed and called on his followers to fight it.

Initially, Sheikh Aweys' return to Mogadishu after more than two years exiled in the Eritrean capital Asmara has raised speculation that he may try to negotiate with the Somali President following a recent trip to Sudan in possible efforts to mediate between himself and his former Islamic Courts ally-turned-President, Sheikh Sharif.

Old allies, new enemies: Sheikh Sharif [left] and Sheikh Aweys

A day after his arrival, Sheikh Aweys addressed a rally in Mogadishu in which he reiterated his political stance of opposing the presence of the African Union peacekeepers (AMISOM) in Somalia and made their withdrawal conditional to any dialogue with the 'Government of National Unity.'

In response, Sheikh Sharif invited Aweys and other Islamist groups to dialogue saying the "nation is not ready for another bloodshed" after the Ethiopian troops, whose two-year military intervention was a rallying cry for Islamist rebels, withdrew last January.

However, as a sign of soaring relations with the government, Sheikh Aweys called on all Islamist groups to fight against the government, saying he was at war with the the international community – apparently he considers President Sheikh Sharif as a puppet of the international community, i.e. the West. This belief, rightly or wrongly, is shared by all Islamist factions opposing the U.N.-backed government.

If Sheikh Aweys' return has brought anything to Mogadishu, it has rejuvenated a dying insurgency in the capital with new conviction and much-needed spiritual and moral boost. As clan plays its role in Somali politics, some analysts and Somalia observers reckon that Al Shabaab – whose fighters are predominately from outside Mogadishu – could be undermined by Sheikh Sharif's loyal Islamists and clansmen who enjoy greater support in the capital and its environs. But Sheikh Aweys' return has changed this earlier presumption, as his opposition to the government will help the insurgency not to be quarantined for clan purposes.

Assassinations

Since Jan. 31, when Sheikh Sharif was elected in Djibouti as president of the 'Government of National Unity' – a controversial name for the former Transitional Federal Government joined by a faction of the Islamist opposition led by Sheikh Sharif – Mogadishu has seen assassinations against Islamist leaders, including those who joined the government and the insurgents who rejected it. Ironically, all parties have criticized these planned assassinations. In his recent statement, Sheikh Aweys condemned the assassinations targeting the 'Mujahideen' who led the insurgency against Ethiopian troops.

Tension is very high in Mogadishu, and the possibility of war among Islamist factions is greater than ever. The government has called for the arms embargo on the country to be lifted in order to build up its military capacity and vowed to tackle the insecurity in the capital, where Islamist insurgents are similarly building their muscle to face what they consider as an "international conspiracy" against the victory of Somali Islamists.

The Eritrean connection

Somalia's Security Minister, Col. Omar Hashi, a former member of the Eritrea-based Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS), an opposition group formed in Sept. 2007 by Sheikh Aweys and Sheikh Sharif, accused the government of Eritrea of shipping arms to Somalia in support for the insurgents. Though the Eritrean government has denied the accusation, such allegations are not new.

Eritrea has long supported the insurgency in Somalia to bring Horn of Africa rival Ethiopia into its knees. Somalia's new president, Sheikh Sharif, and half of the cabinet, including the security minister himself who made the new allegations, sought asylum in Eritrea during the two-year Ethiopian military intervention and the subsequent insurgency that devastated Mogadishu

The arms shipment – if confirmed – will add insult to injury and the country may again plunge into a disastrous bloodshed, this time worse than before and the AMISOM peacekeepers may be drawn into the conflict in the name of defending the U.N.-recognized 'Government of National Unity.'

At this critical point in Mogadishu's blood-stained history, it is a wait-and-see moment at the very crossroads of history.

Garowe Online Editorial, editorial@garoweonline.com