From Garoweonline.com
China, Africa, and Oil
By
Jun 9, 2008 - 8:34:13 AM
Author: Stephanie Hanson
Introduction
As global
demand for energy continues to rise, major players like the United
States, European Union (EU), and Japan are facing a new competitor in
the race to secure long-term energy supplies: China. As its economy
booms, China is intent on getting the resources needed to sustain its
rapid growth, and is taking its quest to lock down sources of oil and
other necessary raw materials across the globe. As part of this effort,
China has turned to Africa, an oil-producing source whose risks and
challenges have often caused it to be overlooked economically. Some
reports describe a race between China and the United States to secure
the continent's oil supplies. Others note that while Chinese interests
in Africa have surged, Western states still make the vast majority of
investments in Africa and remain highly influential.
China's Demand for Energy
China's
booming economy, which has averaged annual 9 percent growth for the
last two decades, requires massive levels of energy to sustain its
growth. Though China relies on coal for most of its energy needs, it is
the second-largest consumer of oil in the world behind the United
States. Once the largest oil exporter in Asia, China became a net
importer of oil in 1993. The International Energy Agency projects
China's net oil imports will jump to 13.1 million barrels per day by 2030
from 3.5 million barrels per day in 2006. China currently imports about
half its oil supplies from the Middle East, and that percentage is projected to grow
in coming decades. Yet the extent of the country's energy demand has
also compelled China to push into new markets, and particularly Africa.
Africa
holds a fraction of the world's proven oil reserves—9 percent compared
to the Middle East's nearly 62 percent—but industry analysts believe it
could hold significant undiscovered reserves. As a result, China is
seeking to increase its oil imports from the continent. It now receives
about one-third of its oil imports from Africa,
9 percent of the continent's total exports in 2006 (by contrast, the
United States purchased 33 percent of that year's exports from Africa).
China's biggest suppliers in Africa as of 2006 were Angola, the
Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Sudan. It has also sought
supplies from Chad, Nigeria, Algeria, and Gabon.
Sino-African Trade
Eighty-five
percent of Africa's exports to China come from five oil-rich countries
(Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, the Republic of Congo, and Sudan),
according to the World Bank. But Chinese interest in Africa extends
beyond oil. China now ranks as the continent's second-highest trading
partner, behind the United States, and ahead of France and Britain.
From 2002 to 2003, trade between China and Africa doubled to $18.5
billion; by 2007, it had reached $73 billion. Much of the growth was
due to increased Chinese imports of oil from Sudan and other African
nations, but Chinese firms also import a significant amount of non-oil
commodities such as timber, copper, and diamonds. China recently began
to import some African-manufactured value-added goods, such as
processed foods and household consumer goods.
Experts say Chinese
companies see Africa as both an excellent market for their low-cost
consumer goods, and a burgeoning economic opportunity as more countries
privatize their industries and open their economies to foreign
investment. Some textile manufacturers, for example, are reportedly
investing in African factories as a way to get around U.S. and European
quotas on Chinese textiles. China's foreign direct investment (FDI) in
Africa, however, is still only 3 percent of China's total FDI, according to a 2007 UN report.
While
China is often characterized as a monolithic actor in Africa, experts
say Chinese trade with Africa has diversified beyond state-directed
enterprises in recent years. "Chinese trade with Africa has become, in
many ways, 'normalized,'"
writes Ian Taylor, an academic who specializes in Sino-Africa ties.
"The concept of a 'China Inc.,' complete with master plan, either at
home or abroad is intrinsically flawed."
The Chinese Approach to Securing Africa's Oil
Because
Nigeria and Angola, the continent's largest oil producers, have
decades-long relationships with Western oil companies, China has
developed a two-pronged strategy toward energy investments. First, it
has pursued exploration and production deals in smaller, low-visibility
countries such as Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and the Republic of Congo.
Second, it has gone after the largest oil producers by offering
integrated packages of aid.
In Angola, which exported roughly 465,000 barrels of oil per day
to China in the first six months of 2007, Beijing secured a major stake
in future oil production in 2004 with a $2 billion package of loans and
aid that includes funds for Chinese companies to build railroads,
schools, roads, hospitals, bridges, and offices; lay a fiber-optic
network; and train Angolan telecommunications workers. Elizabeth C. Economy,
CFR's senior fellow and director for Asia studies, says China is
following a very traditional path established by Europe, Japan, and the
United States: offering poor countries comprehensive and exploitative
trade deals combined with aid. The Chinese counter that they are giving
African governments what they want: no-strings-attached investment and
infrastructure.
Such aid deals have not always been successful,
however. In Nigeria, Chinese state-owned CNPC's $2 billion investment
in an oil refinery has fallen through, and in Angola, news reports
suggest that work on the country's railroads has either halted or encountered serious delays.
Analysts say China's most successful African energy investment has been
in Sudan, which now sends 60 percent of its oil output to China.
Overall,
China has not made the inroads into Africa's oil reserves that some
media coverage has suggested; the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie
estimates Chinese companies hold under 2 percent of Africa's known oil
reserves. Erica S. Downs of the Brookings Institution writes that "most of the African assets
held by China's NOCs [national oil companies] are of a size and quality
of little interest to international oil companies (IOCs). In fact, many
of these assets were relinquished by the IOCs."
Shifts in Chinese Foreign Policy
Some
experts suggest that the need to secure natural resources—whether oil,
metal, or timber—is the driving component of Chinese foreign policy
toward Africa. China's manufacturing sector has created enormous demand
for aluminum, copper, nickel, iron ore, and oil. As this trend was
under way in 2005, David Zweig and Bi Jianhai wrote in
Foreign Affairs that China "has been able to adapt its foreign policy
to its domestic development strategy" to an unprecedented level by
encouraging state-controlled companies to seek out exploration and
supply contracts with countries that produce oil, gas, and other
resources. At the same time, Beijing aggressively courts the
governments of those countries with diplomacy, trade deals, debt
forgiveness, and aid packages.
Yet others, including some
analysts and U.S. policymakers, caution against conflating China's
foreign policy goals with the actions of its energy firms. In June 2008
congressional testimony, the deputy assistant secretaries of state for
East Asia and Africa noted that "there are often exaggerated charges
that Chinese firms’ activities or investment decisions are coordinated
by the Chinese government as some sort of strategic gambit in the
high-stakes game of global energy security. In reality, Chinese firms
compete for profitable projects not only with more technologically and
politically savvy international firms, but also with each other."
Some
experts suggest that China is struggling to address tensions that have
arisen between government agencies and Chinese companies over the
country's strategic interests in Africa. China's national oil companies
are, in some cases, politically stronger than the government agencies
charged with regulating them. In a 2007
Washington Quarterly article, Bates Gill and James Reilly refer to this conflict as a "classic principal-agent dilemma" (PDF)
noting that China's oversight agencies—including the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce—do not have authority over
Chinese corporations overseas.
Noninterference?
The
Chinese approach to foreign relations is officially termed
"noninterference in domestic affairs." Chinese leaders say human rights
are relative, and each country should be allowed their own definition
of them and timetable for reaching them. CFR’s Economy says that unlike
the United States, China does not mix business with politics. In fact,
China has argued that attempts by foreign nations to discuss democracy
and human rights violate the rights of a sovereign country.
Some
China experts say Beijing's approach is not significantly different
from how any other country pursues its interests. "The United States is
highly selective about who we're moral about," says David C. Kang,
a professor of government at Dartmouth College. "We support Pakistan,
Egypt, Saudi Arabia—huge human-rights violators—because we have other
strategic interests. China's not unique in cutting deals with bad
governments and providing them arms."
But China's foreign policy
appears to be evolving as it realizes the need to protect its economic
interests. For instance, it has altered its policy of blocking UN
Security Council resolutions authorizing peacekeepers for Darfur and
placed modest pressure on Khartoum to allow a UN peacekeeping
deployment. "Beijing's recent handling of the situation in Sudan shows
that it is learning the limitations of noninterference, however much that principle remains part of its official rhetoric," write Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt and Andrew Small in
Foreign Affairs.
"China has found noninterference increasingly unhelpful as it learns
the perils of tacitly entrusting its business interests to repressive
governments," they write.
But China also continues to sell arms
to Sudan, among other African countries. The Congressional Research
Service reports that China views these sales as a means of "enhancing
its status as an international political power, and increasing its
ability to obtain access to significant natural resources, especially oil" (PDF).
In the period from 2003 to 2006, China's arms sales to Africa made up
15.4 percent ($500 million) of all conventional arms transfers to the
continent. Notable weapons sales include those to Sudan, Equatorial
Guinea, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Burundi, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. Beijing has
also sent Chinese military trainers to help their African counterparts.
Arms sales and military relationships help China gain important African
allies in the United Nations—including Sudan, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria—for
its political goals, including preventing Taiwanese independence and
diverting attention from its own human rights record.
Assessing the Benefits of Sino-African Ties
Africa
registered 5.8 percent economic growth in 2007, its highest level ever,
in part because of Chinese investment. Experts say the roads, bridges,
and dams built by Chinese firms are low cost, good quality, and
completed in a fraction of the time such projects usually take in
Africa. China also contributes peacekeepers to UN missions across
Africa, including Liberia and Darfur. It has cancelled $10 billion in
bilateral debt from African countries, sends doctors to treat Africans
across the continent, and hosts thousands of African workers and
students in Chinese universities and training centers.
Critics
say these projects are meant to build goodwill for later investment
opportunities or stockpile international support for contentious
political issues. Princeton Lyman,
CFR's adjunct senior fellow for Africa studies, says China's interest
in Africa has both positive and negative effects. "It's good for the
continent because it brings in a new actor who's willing to invest, but
it's bad for Africa if it turns countries away from the hard work of
political and economic reform," he says.
Concerns about China's
role in Africa have been voiced by a range of actors—from human rights
groups to international observers to Africans themselves. Many Africans
are concerned over how China operates in Africa, accusing Chinese
companies of underbidding local firms and not hiring Africans. Chinese
infrastructure deals often stipulate that up to 70 percent of the labor
must be Chinese, according to CFR's Economy.
International observers say the way China does business—particularly its willingness to pay bribes,
as documented by Transparency International, and attach no conditions
to aid money—undermines local efforts to increase good governance and
international efforts at macroeconomic reform by institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
But
Economy notes that China's policy toward Africa is a flexible one. "Its
broad and deep diplomatic and economic engagement ensures that even as
it falls short in meeting African expectations and needs, it is constantly reassessing and adapting its policies,"
she told a Senate subcommittee in June 2008. The same can't be said of
Africa's policy toward China. In fact, experts say that the African
Union's lack of a coherent, official China policy weakens the
continent's ability to negotiate with China. Taylor argues that the
individual countries benefiting from China do not want the African
Union involved in their dealings, and thus have resisted multilateral
dealings.
Overall, experts say, China's involvement could
jump-start change on the continent, but only if African governments
become more assertive partners in their dealings with China. World Bank
economist Harry G. Broadman writes that Chinese firms can help African
countries tap into global value chains,
giving them a "chance to increase the volume, diversity, and worth of
their exports." But African governments must enact a series of
reforms—of basic market institutions, investment regulations,
infrastructure, and tariffs—to realize these benefits, he argues. "This
is Africa's internal problem," says Kang of Dartmouth. "How do you
build infrastructure without outside investment? And how do you have a
stable government with no resources?" A 2006 CFR Task Force report on
Africa urged U.S. officials to maintain support for reforms and transparency despite the rise in competition with China for Africa's resources.
Council on Foreign Relations
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