As ugly as it is, the scrofulous picture of lawlessness and anarchy that reigned for almost two decades hides and even more atrocious reality which, if uncurbed, may result in another collapse and supervene upon any nation building effort. Somalia is traveling the same road that led to its collapse in the first place.

Major Ingredients of the old Road – The First Collapse

Tribalism - the last refuge of a scoundrel

Tribalism is central to the life of the Somali; it is a social insurance, a master key that  opens the doors of the good, the bad and the ugly and above all it is a piece of identification. Tribalism is also a devastating weapon used by the ignorant, the opportunistic vultures and the piranhas of the Somali society. It can move societies to accomplish the noblest achievements and it can tear asunder its fabric creating persisting animosity and bloodshed. Knowing where to draw the line is of ultimate paramount and that is where the Somali society has failed miserably.

The burning of tribal effigies and symbolic burials of tribalism in the heydays of the late regime, Kacaankii “barakaysnaa” may have been a veracious assay to rid society of tribalism. Ironically, less then a decade from its burial, tribalism reared its ugly head in defiance, laying claim to new definitions, forms and facades. It is during this period, most likely the last 10 years of that regime, that the seeds of the current chaos were planted. Like any falling dictator, Siyad Barre mustered all the slyness in his books to delay the ominous moment. And like the crafty man that was, may Allah rest his soul in peace; he devised the most scourging weapon of it all; SSDS (Somali Self-Destructive Syndrome). In practice, the weapon is put to work by giving the reigns of the tribe to gluttonous, immoral, and most simpleton individuals. Rewards for loyalty to the government were paid out in tribal currency in the form of nominations of these individuals to high positions. Punishment for defiance was meted out on the same criteria. Siyad Barre contrived a double edged sword to reward and penalize a tribe simultaneously; increased nominations from the baulker tribes, of timeservers and self-seekers who can break the ranks of their own tribe and disentangle the bonds of cohesion. More importantly, the unofficial job description of these hoodlums included fomenting and hatching conspiracies to breed a rift between neighboring tribes. Thus, a new culture that elevates the mediocre emerged, spread and established itself in a very short period. Unbelievably, the same tribes they destroy are also the ones that nurture the egos of the malice-mongers amongst them for the simple and fundamental reason that they present a “political” and a “contemporary” line of defense against other tribes. The usual justification is “if every one else has them, why not us”. Will tribes be wise enough to terminate the power of their rogue sons? If they can do that, it will be the noblest accomplishment of the Somali society. The reality is each tribe has the ability to curtail warlords hailing from it. But we have yet to see any that realizes the magnitude of the erosion of tribal ethics and decides to rescind the “wait for others to do it first” attitude.

Wryly, the TFG, except for an insignificant number of individuals, is entirely made up of these new breed of leaders. Emboldened by the lack of sanctions from their own tribes – the only entity that can reverse their prominence – they made sure that no headways are made towards social reconciliation. They thrive on social pandemonium; peace, law and order, and social tranquility are not their opportune environment. The TFG has not only institutionalized tribalism, it also put the stamp of approval on the leadership by the unscrupulous politicos – a hoard of warlords. The unfortunate part is that it is not limited to the TFG; Somaliland, Puntland, Djibouti, Ethiopia’s 5^th Region and even in the Diaspora – where ever there are Somalis, there is always a fly in the ointment; leadership and power is in the hands of, or being sought by the least capable and the most corrupt individuals. That and that alone, is the arrant evidence of social collapse; leadership by the mentally and morally blind.  Social collapse is nothing but a society’s failure to find ways to deal with the factors that can bring about its demise whether they are economic, environmental, political or social. In the case of the Somalis, the combined effect of all of these factors compounds the matter even further. Social response to factors that cause collapse begins with making the right decisions, the correct choices and empowering those who can bring vision, plan and potential for reversal of fortunes to the table.

The TFG is a government of warlords. And unless a leopard can change its spots, it is hard to envision that in an overnight these warlords will acquire empathy and philanthropy for a society whose blood they imbibed for 16 years. Is it realistic to use a flammable liquid to extinguish a burning house? The warlords are the fire and the TFG is the flammable liquid. It is an institutionalized strategy to perpetuate the devouring ways of the warlords already pregnant with the pillage and blunder of the blood, lives and souls of their people. Commonly, a warlord operates best when social chaos is rife and, hence, they are adept in keeping it at an optimal level of disorder where fear and suspicion are maximal, emotions are raw and rational thinking is minimal. The loss of trust in law and order will propagate the same chain of events that weaved themselves throughout like a wild fire and, thus, in the same way that the first collapse happened, the second will follow suit in the hands of warlords posing as a government.

The matter is further exacerbated by Hawiye’s fear of retribution from a Darood clan lead by Abdullahi Yusuf who has on more than one occasion voiced his irritation with the Hawiye. In the absence of a coordinated tribal reconciliation, the atmosphere is ripe for retaliation. The Hawiye has an axe to grind with the Darood for cruelty and humiliating treatment meted out to them during Siyad Barr’s regime. These old gores are at least psychologically aggravated by the contingent of clan militia from Puntland that accompanied the Ethiopians into Mogadishu who currently represent the Somali National Army. The need to eliminate that consternation is imminent and comes second to nothing. The rupture between Hawiye and Darood may, if unresolved under the context of the Somali tribal xeer, throttle the prospects of social tranquility in the South and contribute to the loss of any hopes of resurgence of the old Somalia. But the grudges are not only between Hawiye and Darood; there are grudges between the Hawiye themselves too which need to be addressed through reconciliation.

Governance

"Empires are broken down when the profits of administration are so great, that ambition is satisfied with obtaining them, and he that aspires to greatness needs do nothing more than talk himself into importance”.
Samuel Johnson: Letter to John Taylor, (January 24, 1784)

Very simply put, governance is the process by which government officials exercise power within a society. The participation of the whole society in the delivery of governance is determinant to the functioning of a nation. The degree of public participation in the decisions on issues that immediately affect them determines their satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the government and its power structure. Centralized governance is an indication of corruption. Governance also ought to reflect the traditions and culture of a society. Under Siyad Barre, the Somali tradition of freedom and openness were repeatedly violated. Centralization of governance has also severely impeded economic development in the outlying regions, transparency of public officials, professional work ethics and ability of decent officers to undertake proper performance of some of their employees. Dictatorship thrives on centralization; they like to keep everything where they can see them. Will the TFG change that?

The sweeping majority of the TFG were politicians-in-apprentice to the dictatorial regime with no other experience to compare it to. Recycling them back into power constitutes protraction of social suffering and laying the foundations of the second collapse. If the society wants its leaders to be people who wheel and deal, confuse and contort, create misery and mayhem, who scornfully watch while their society withers away, why are the Somalis worried about Ethiopian occupation? We can already hear and see statements, actions and decrees that echo the past.

Various officials have repeatedly made public statements that violate the rights of individuals or ones that restrict the economic activity while others continue to insist upon irrational opinions that obviously hinder reconciliation. The Prime Minister announced all airlines to ask for permission to land and to take off through a Ministry of Aviation that has yet to come to the capital, the Minister of Sports banned all athletes to leave the country (frankly I am wondering how there would be any athletes in a place where you have to dodge bullets!). The Prime Minister announced he will collect all weapons by force merely to eat his words in less than two days. The President continuously flip-flopped on reconciliation with the opponents of his government including the ousted ICU. Instead of listening to what the Somalis think, which would have earned the TFG and him a badly needed credibility, he had to bow down to pressure from foreigners to agree to hold some kind of a reconciliation conference.

There are two reasons for the TFG’s blunders: the first being that even if there is a shred of honesty in the powers-to-be, their approaches are reminiscent of past decisions that failed the society. Instead of vesting in a process that not only makes sense but also enhances economic activity and contributes to making peoples’ lives a little easier, they are choosing to impose their will upon the society. The various TFG ministers had all the time in the world to plan and analyze the needs of their portfolios and upon arrival in Mogadishu put forth concrete plans for the public to see which would translate into the existence of actual vision, mission and tangible intentions and plans to move the country forward. They are reacting to events instead of leading them and their reactions are usually going against the current and result in more negative reactions. Isn’t that what brought down Siyad Barre?

Economic doldrums and Environmental Degradation

The direct results attributable to misdirected policies, corruption and mismanagement is the invariable erosion of Somalia’s economic potential. The prevalence of degeneracy and misappropriation of public funds segregated for specific projects drained the resources. The government was resolved to keep a number of industries and agricultural projects that could not pay for themselves let alone bring in a profit. The Urea Production Plant, the Refinery, the Spare Parts factory and the Medicine and Medical Supplements Factory are only a few of the industrial projects that were built and kept painfully limping on for political purposes. Most of them were established with aid money running for a number of years but the funds allocated for the operation, maintenance and personnel training were diverted with only insufficient trickles going into the projects. Other industrial projects that were viable, profitable and easy to maintain were slowly rusting away and collecting dust as funds dried up as a result of corruption and mismanagement. These industries include; the Tomato Factory, the Pots and Pans factory, The Cement factory, Balad clothing Plant, and SNAI BIASA.

A development policy plan is crucial before daydreams of major projects become the objects of reality. That plan has to conform to the capacity of the nation in terms of technical know-how, local availability of raw material and the existence of markets for its products. The omission of these considerations in the plans is neither realistic nor logical. The TFG, though, has to contend with more than just the development of the national development policy. The attitudes of the society and their understanding of the real ownership of public property and the consequent impairments from that attitude have to be reversed.

So much damage has been done not only to the environment but also to the existing infrastructure. The trade in charcoal denuded the environment. Water pipes and electric lines have been dug up and sold as parts or just for the iron and copper content; industries have been disassembled and sold for scrap; monuments have been brought down for sale; schools and universities have been robbed with nothing standing except empty walls. The entire nation has been dismembered. The challenges ahead of the TFG are insurmountable. Pondering upon the form of social ignorance it took to inflict that magnitude of ruin on a nation’s public property points also to the extensiveness of the task facing the TFG. In contrast, public properties in Somaliland faired extremely better. Institutions such as Amoud Secondary School, Sheikh Secondary School, 1^st July Secondary School and schools and institutions in Burao, Las Anood, Erigabo and others places remained intact protected and cared for by the communities in their vicinity. As peace took root, many of these institutions were turned into centers of higher education.