Mr. Adolphe Manirakiza Burundi's army spokesman has repeatedly asserted that Burundi troops were ready for their peace keeping mission in Somalia even though there is not as yet a precise deployment. Mr. Adolphe Manirakiza has gone further and stated that Burundi has experienced the same situation of guerrilla war over years, where government troops were regularly attacked by rebels hidden in houses of the civil population houses. Manirakiza's assessment is overly optimistic and understates the risks that Burundian troops will face. The experiment could turn deadly for a variety of reasons.

First, the minister of defense has clearly indicated that the troops lack appropriate equipment for the mission. While the USA has promised to provide assistance, it still not clear whether the equipments have been made available and whether Burundi troops have sufficient training to use them effectively.

Second, in a correspondence sent to Burundi Réalités Agence Presse immediately after Burundi's commitment to contribute troops to the AU Somalia peace keeping mission, the Islamic court militia of Somalia has warned Burundi that its forces will be attacked as though they were Ethiopian or Somalian troops.

Fourth, an audio taped message broadcasted by Somalian local radio station, Islamist commander Aden Hashi Ayro instructed Somali youth to wage war against foreign troops. He said that â-?It is time for the Somali youth to fight the occupation by Ethiopia and others." This could very well mean that Burundi forces and any other peace keeping forces will be fought by the Islamic Jihadists to the fullest. To eliminate any doubt about the determination to fight foreign troops insurgent have already targeted the Ugandans since their arrival on March 6 and two peacekeepers have been injured and flown back to Kampala. On Monday March 19th, nearby mortar attacks killed at least three and injured 12 as military hardware and the final deployment of Uganda's AU troops docked at Mogadishu port. During the March 21st heavy fighting that killed at least 16 people, insurgents downed an Ethiopian helicopter and dragged bodies of Ethiopian soldiers through the streets of Mogadishu before burning them. Recall that a similar incident occurred in the aftermath of the 1993 shooting down of an American Black Hawk helicopter operating under the UN mission "restore hope" when Somali militiamen dragged images of 18 dead American troops through the streets of Mogadishu. America was forced to retreat.

Mr. Manirakiza reiterated that Burundi is not deterred by the insurgents' actions and there is nothing to worry about. He also mentioned that the troops are being given extra intensive training which will be completed in a matter of days. On Sunday April 1st, 2007 insurgents fired mortars at Ugandan peace keeping forces guarding the presidential compounds killing one and injuring five. "Our troops were guarding the presidential compound on Saturday when it was struck by mortars. One of our soldiers was killed, and five others injured", Ugandan military spokesman Major Felix Kulayigye was quoted by Reuters as saying.

Neither the minister of defense, nor President Nkurunziza has provided any convincing rationale for Burundi's involvement in Somalia's quagmire. In fact it is paradoxal that Burundi would contribute 1700 troops while at the same time accepting 1500 troops from South Africa for peacekeeping duties in Burundi which is still dealing with its last rebel group Palipehutu-NFL. While Burundi's troop contribution was welcome because very few African countries were willing to participate, neither the AU nor the US would have held it against Burundi were to abstain from engaging troops in Somalia. There is no publicly known strategic rationale for Burundi's involvement in the Somalia war. The downside for Burundi is significant because of the danger of being caught in a wider war with religious underpinnings while Burundi's priority should be reconstruction. Participation in Somalia's war opens up the possibility that some Burundi's warlords could get assistance from Eritrea or Somali's Islamic courts to start a war of their own in Burundi. There is no peace to keep in Somalia. There is war to wage and it is not Burundi's war.

Source: Burundi Realites