By Abdulaziz Mohammed  

The endless clan-politician plots in the sorry Somali state so far would have been a fascinating, fictional read; stuff also worthy of a Hollywood movie with an evil account. Just imagine if Somalia’s last 17 years has been the work of a writer’s overactive imagination to pen! If not, that is, for the undeniable result of a country destroyed in every conceivable way.  

The latest turns and twists of yet another go at habitual deceitfulness is the peace between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and a portion of the Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia (ARS). What started as a genuine take on to bring peace to Somalia, by including the Islamists in a peace deal, now stands as a peace between the same clan. There is even a more sinister political power grab involved. What led me to believe this?  

Apart from the fact the prime minster, Nuur Ade, of the TFG and his opposition partners in these negotiations are of the same clan, Nuur Ade has waged a political war to dethrone the president of the TFG. The main charge of Nuur Ade and his clan supporters against the president is the president is against peace. This is clearly for Addis Ababa, the propping-up power behind the TFG, to consume, so the Ethiopians will side with Nuur Ade and his clan.  

The problem with such scheme is there has been a power shift from a clan-led Islamists, the Hawiye, to a nonclan based, hardcore Al-Shabab. The Al-shabab, whether terrorists or not, have taken overmuch of the south of the country, and they are knocking at the gates of Mogadishu.  

The Al-Shabab and the whole Islamic extremism in Somalia are the byproduct of one of the attempts at power of Hawiye clan leaders. When their naked clan military campaigns failed, which destroyed the Somali state and social order, they put on the Islamic garments of the worst extreme. This has an eerie similarity to Afghanistan, where Mujahedeen warlordism gave birth to Talibanism. The only difference is that Islam was the motivating factor of the Mujahedeen against the Godless, communist Soviet empire. When the Soviet army was defeated, the Mujahedeen reverted back to a factionalized tribal loyalty. Then enter the Taliban (students), who just as the Al-Shabab of Somalia now, proclaimed as the true principled faithful—except neither the Taliban then nor the Al-Shabab of Somalia now were or are followers of authentic Islam. Just ask their living victims!           

Anyway, Addis Ababa’s wish to extract its troops from Somalia, on the success of Islamist threat liquidated, is no longer predicated on peace, although useful, with clan-based Islamists whose military power severely degraded. In other words, this peace hatched in Djibouti will not bring much of a peace. Nor will it disarm the most extreme Islamists, Al-Shabab, in Somalia. If anything, given the political treachery behind the Djibouti deal, this will only enlist others to join with Al-Shabab.  

Under the threat of such rigid Al-shabab, you would think the prime minster will not challenge the president on trivial matters, such as cabinet appointment-allocations among his supporters and the president’s. There should not have been a chasm at all, unless there was a calculated political coup against the president.  

One clear sign of such was the spectacle of a dinner recently held by Nuur Ade for his parliamentarian supporters in Nairobi. Geeddi, the former prime minster, sat on one side of Nuur Ade, while Qanyare, a former warlord—all of the same clan and mentality— provided comical relief at the expense of president Yussuf.  

One more evidence on this political coup is the deafening silence on those scathing demands, with a threat of violence to back them up, for the withdrawal of Ethiopians from Somalia. This was the daily mantra, not too long-ago, from the clan-Islamists. Indeed, there was that docile statement from Sheik Shariif of all people, on the deadline day, few days ago, on Ethiopian withdrawal from Somalia. And it read: “We are sorry the Ethiopians are still there!” Not even Sheikh Aways and his cabal in Asmara are talking tough anymore! What gives?  

If I had not given you an ample proof by now about the true agenda behind this false peace cooked in Djibouti, then how do you explain the doubling of the parliament to 550 members, from 275. This would even out-do the U.S congress of both houses, representatives of 50 states with more than 300 million people, of 535 members. Could this be any other attempt but to have a solid majority in the Somali parliament to attain an iron-clad, veto-proof political power? I do not think so!  

On one hand, my hat is off to the politicians plus Islamists of the Hawiye clan for their clever and peaceful try underway this time to rule, using Ethiopian troops as their power base on make-believe peace among themselves.  

This tactic of turning the Ethiopians on the side of one clan started with the much-heralded bribing of then in command general, Gabre, of Ethiopian troops in Mogadishu by Hawiye business leaders in the city. Rumor has it the general received hundreds of thousands of US dollars. Exposed of his collusion, however, Addis Ababa swiftly removed Gabre from his post. The plan B, which is in progress, is to use a sham peace among same clan members as a dowry for a successful marriage between the Hawiye clan politicians and the Ethiopian interest.     

However, unscrupulous, deceitful goals, whether carried out by violence or by politics, will not bring true and lasting peace to Somalia. If “ruling” was their want, Somalia and Somalis would not be in this hell the Hawiye leaders put them in. Think how many chances this bunch had to rule, and not destroy again and again! For God sakes, they could not even bring peace to Mogadishu; while other regions of Somalia have been enjoying sophisticated or relative self- administrations, like Somaliland and Puntland.  

Now, the prime minster, who would start a rift between members of his own TFG, wants the Somalis and the whole world to believe he had achieved peace for Somalia. Never mind this peace is between a fraction of the opposition and, strangely, another fraction of the sitting government, which he represents. Thus, I am all too unwillingly pessimistic about this deal in Djibouti bringing peace to Somalia. God knows we Somalis need peace! Rather, I am afraid this will usher in fresh rounds of anew turf war and its lords—more bloodshed. I hope, whatever comes, this will not be the final nail on the coffin against Somalia’s territorial unity.     

What Somalis need is an honest dealings, a genuine harmony, among their leaders; leaders who would pool together to seek and achieve a lasting peace, now more than ever. Have we not learned anything yet from the past?  

Abdulaziz Mohammed  

Somam23@wowway.com