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| Last Updated: Jul 29, 2010 - 5:56:52 AM |
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Somalia THE WRONG STRATEGY
29 Jul 29, 2010 - 5:49:03 AM
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By Ali Osman
The crisis in Somalia is spiraling out of control and no one seems to know how to handle it. A report by the International Crisis Group shows since 2006 the situation in Somalia “has deteriorated into one of the world’s worst humanitarian and security crises”. This report was released after Ethiopian troops invaded Somalia. An invasion sanctioned by United States, African Union and NATO member States. The misguided Ethiopian invasion and subsequent occupation had devastating consequences for Somalia and the East Africa region.
The Ethiopians after considerable losses of war and successfully toppling moderate Islamic Courts from office unilaterally pulled out their last men. The Ethiopians left behind a more extreme Al-Shabab and corrupt Transitional Government made up former warlords and tribal men. The Transitional Federal Government was resuscitated in absentia by sprinkling former Islamic Court members. The former warlords still set the agenda and their corruption knows no limits. The Ethiopians were replaced with 5 thousand poorly trained Ugandan and Burundi forces that targets civilian populated neighborhoods. Typing the words “Somalis killed” in Google News confirms targeting of civilians is deliberate and systemic. The African Union shelling knows no bounds. Civilians are killed in vegetable markets, soccer fields, restaurants, schools and even hospitals are not immune from the shelling.
Every 24 hours around 25 civilians are killed in Mogadishu that is one civilian every hour since 2006. The Somali civilians killed by Ethiopian and African Union since 2006 are more than 518,000. That is a half a million civilians killed double the number in Darfur. Within next 120 days, the Somali civilians killed in Mogadishu will exceed 800,000, the number of people killed in the Rwandan genocide! Every Somali from South and Central Somalia attends funeral of a child, a parent, a close relative, a neighbor, or a friend every week. The death and destruction has no end in sight.
The mass slaughter of Somali civilians had several consequences. One of which was recently felt in Kampala Uganda, where most of the AU forces are from. But make no mistake; this was not an act of revenge or exporting terror to neighboring countries. It was a brilliant strategic move by hardcore Al-Shabab Al-Qaida affiliates to generate the kind of response that would punish already dying population. Their reasoning is to create more enraged youth bent on revenge when the coming invasion forces kill more civilians. Hardcore Al-Shabab members affiliated with Al Qaeda is always step ahead of the clueless African Union and the United States. Their second objectives was to send clear signal to moderate members that they should not entertain being any future negotiations or involve themselves international sponsored peace deals. The message was loud and clear, we are all “terrorists” and we are in together this mess. By all estimates, they have achieved their objectives.
Until few weeks ago, there was huge momentum that the best solution for Somali is to withdraw support from the Somali Transitional Government and let Somalis write their own history. This thinking, which still is the best alternative in solving the Somali crisis, is now shelved for good. Any voice suggesting such an idea must be crazy or aiding the terrorists. But the opposite is true, when Northern Somalia also known as Somaliland was left alone, they created a local government with transparent elections and same is true for Puntland. This was equally true in the South until Ethiopia invaded back in 2006 using manufactured and false propaganda. This week, the United States sent Eric Holder, the US Attorney General to show solidarity with Uganda but he is also there to encourage the African Union members to commit significant troops on the ground. The U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, Johnnie Carson at the sideline of the recent African Union summit welcomed the additional troops.
The decision to send more troops into Somalia is a bad idea. First, the Somali Transitional Government is not a reliable partner and is not an entity that is interested in seeing a Somali Republic to emerge. One would agree if such an entity existed an adequate troop surge may have helped Somalia. But, the government is hopelessly corrupt and is not a reliable partner as I have mentioned Somalia corruption starts here. The Somali Transitional Government is a joke and their incompetence defies logic. Secondly, the African Union cannot muster enough troops to make a difference even if credible government were to exist. The minimum troop level required to bring about lasting peace in Somali will exceed 50,000. We are talking about, the kind of counter insurgency required to capture territories, hold it, clear insurgents and establish functioning organs of government and leave enough police to make sure insurgents do not infiltrate back cleared areas. Thirdly, the number of UN soldiers floated in the African Union meeting, something 15,000 or less is just unrealistic and will not change an iota on the ground. It is going to be just a life-support and will exasperate the humanitarian situation even more.
The “life support “strategy seems a new US containment policy. This containment policy is not intended to help Somalia but is designed to deny the insurgents a victory and would ensure a base for US Special Operations landing if needed in the future. If these small troops in Mogadishu are experimentation of this containment policy, there is bad news for Somalia and East Africa as a region. The more these “containment” units stay in Mogadishu, the more death and destruction they cause. That is a boon for Al Qaida. The misery for the average Somali will multiply and the catastrophic humanitarian crisis will increase even more.
The unintended consequences of the “containment” policy are bad omen for countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda and Djibouti not to mention the relatively peaceful regions of Somalia. If this containment policy continues, we will see more terrorist actions in Kenya and other neighboring states. A terror attack in Kenyan soil would dry up the tourist based economy of Kenya. Kenya will severely punish the large Somali Diaspora based in their land, and even the ethnic Somali Northern Frontier Region in Kenya will not be immune from guilty by association. This will create more recruits for Al-Shabab and bring the economic activity of East Africa to naught. Ethiopia will undoubtedly come under fire and fighting elusive terrorist would tax their meager socialist economy creating misery for millions of Ethiopians.
The solutions for Somalia rests with simple strategy completely withdraw support and let Somalis write their own history. This includes demobilizing the African Union troops and delegitimizing the current Transitional Federal Government. The uninitiated would believe such strategy must be from crazy person or worse silent supporter of Al-Shabab but the opposite is true.
The moment African Union troops withdraw from Mogadishu, two things will happen: First, the corrupt Transitional Federal Government will go with the departing African Union troops. Second, Al-Shabab will not roll in alone but Hisbul-Islam and business elite would be jointly joining the fray. The Somali business elite, I am talking about businesses that generate half a billion dollar combined revenue a month. These businesses are not going to sit idle and let their investments evaporate. These business people are in bed with transitional federal government and they are also in bed with Al-Shabab for risk diversification reasons. Al-Shabab is not all Al-Qaida affiliated but more than half are working with them because they know the current government does not offer any hope and future for them. Along the brutality and crazy draconian bra searches of Al-Shabab comes with security, equal justice and that is what keeps them afloat as it is not available under the TFG. But justice, security and equality for all will be present under Hisbul-Islam/Business government with the added civility and respect of individual rights.
The powerful business elite with their connections, moderate insurgents (former Islamic Court members, some Al-Shabab and Hisbul-Islam) and population tired of Al-Shabab brutality will form a coalition government that is similar in nature of the Islamic Courts Union that ruled Somalia back in 2006. The Al-Shabab hardcore groups prefer American marines than the possibility of this scenario materializing. That is the exact reason Kampala was bombed few weeks ago to make sure more African Union “life support” troops arrive that would extend the corrupt Transitional Federal Government. The African Union troops will launch missiles into population centers every hour or so as they usually do. The later scenario guarantees Al-Qaida a safe haven and fresh recruits bent on revenge for long time to come.
The new coalition government that would emerge is not going to be rubber stamp for United States and neighboring countries. However preventing this natural organic process to take its course would be reckless and dangerous not only for Somali but for East Africa as region. The world is well advised to leave Somalia alone or there will be many Somalia, Kenya being the first. Remember you read it here.
By Ali Osman
ccusmaan@gmail.com
The opinion above is solely the author's and does not necessarily reflect the views of Garowe Online and its affiliates.
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