Opinion
Somalia: will the insurgents reconcile with non-Ethiopian forces
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Jan 14, 2008 - 11:36:14 PM

Omar M. Farah, MA (International Development)

Melbourne, Australia

First and foremost it is appropriate to note that the tragedy that unfolds on a daily basis in Somalia and Mogadishu in particular is unfortunate and any casualties regardless of the causes are regrettable and every Somali casualty is minus from Somali populace. Mogadishu’s inhabitants are entitled to sleep and wake-up in peace and hope like any other human being on the face of the earth. Mothers in Mogadishu don’t deserve to continue to shed tears after tears and lose their beloved ones without real motives.  

To focus my point on the discourse, before I jump to any conclusions it may be wise and appropriate to question analytically if the Ethiopian forces were actually the real focal point of the dispute – a dispute that causes enormous death and destruction of whatever is left in Mogadishu both human and material.  

As I explained in my previous article (Somalia: Was it legitimate for Ethiopia to go to Mogadishu?) Somalia and Ethiopia have a territorial dispute. However, as the developments of events have shown, the current insurgency against Ethiopian forces in Somalia has nothing to do with that history, and highlighting Ethiopian presence was just used as a political tool to justify the rejection of the peace keepers. In reality, the main reasons, six out of seven reasons, was the mere rejection of the government regardless the nation that supports them.  

Who are opposing the Somali government and why?  

The opponents of the Somali government are fragmented and they have different agendas but yet they have cynical similarities which unite them for the time being until probably they reach the cross road. These elements are included but not confined to:

1. One sub-sub clan militia insurgents that are so determined to protect the system that supports them during the high-days of the civil war (from 1991 to 2006) which allowed them to acquire what the Somalis dubbed triple-M, the money, militia and media. These items could be added to the houses that they moved in after the legitimate inhabitants were displaced by the civil war.
2. An Islamist group who have a paternal working relationship with the first group who want to rule Somalia under the cover of Islamic Sharea. In this group, according to a reliable source some are more sincere than the others when it comes to the religion.
3. Few, but noisy, former sacked ministers and MPs who defected to Asmara to secure future title after they lost their position in the interim government.
4. Innocent, narrow-minded, wrongly indoctrinated, and distortedly persuaded, mainly, young men who are led to believe that killing Ethiopian forces, Somali Government forces and government supporters will provide them a short cut to paradise.
5. Few elements who believe that the Somali civil war and scoring territorial gains is not yet over, like Kismayo occupiers who themselves agree to disagree how to share the booty.
6. A few number of people, mainly traditionalist and old former government officials who defiantly oppose the Ethiopian entry into the Somali territory, despite every thing else, and
7. Finally, external forces, mainly some Arab countries and Eritrea. The Arab countries opposes the active Ethiopian role in Somalia for geopolitical reasons, where Eritrea believes it is their best chance to wage a proxy war to revenge from Ethiopian forces by providing military support and temporary residential status to the Somali insurgents, as long as they are doing the dirty job for them.    

The cynical similarities of the referred fragmented coalition that opposes the government’s objectives could be summed up: working towards defeating the Somali government, hiding behind the slogan of the so-called “Ethiopian invasion” and using Somali teenagers to commit suicide, so they (the opponents) would achieve their political agendas. Additionally, many of these opponents do believe that they are better off without a government, as any government and governance will end the continuation of the present Somali saga – a condition that is profitable to some of them.  

Therefore, it is unlikely for the insurgents to reconcile with any peace keepers no matter their nationality and the religion they follow.  I wonder if the insurgents know that, as a result of their actions, many Somalians are suffering and dying almost every where around the world in the most demeaning way, many of them in search of peace and hope, the two most expensive items in Somalia.  

If this is the reality, will the international community walk away from Somali people and let them go into the hands of the merciless interest-groups? Will the neighbouring countries tolerate the chaotic and internally burning territory in their backyard, or will they unite to distinguish the fire before it destroys their fence and threatens their household. Will the African Union watch the desperation of their brothers and sisters, as they did many times in the past in many countries of the continent? I don’t think so. 

Omar Mohamud Farah (Dhollawaa)