by Liban Ahmad,  Libahm@gmail.com
Garowe Online  contributor

ANALYSIS | The Puntland State of Somalia has warned the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG) against failing to honour the agreement signed by the TFG prime minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke and Puntland president, Abdirahman Farole in Galkacyo in August. The warning comes in the wake of an agreement signed by the Somali Minister Fisheries, Abdirahman Ibbi  and Djibouti minister of Transport, Ali Hassan Bahdoon,  this week.

The new agreement will make Djibouti the centre of anti-piracy campaign. The Puntland leadership warned against any attempt to sack the Somali prime minister. It is not secret that power struggle has erupted between the Somali president Sheikh Sharif and his prime minister. President Sharif banks on the expanded Parliament to be able sack the prime minister in the same way that the former Transitional National Government  president Abdiqasim Salad Hassan sacked his prime minister Ali Khalif Galaydh in 2002.  Unlike Ali Khalif Galaydh, the TFG prime minister, Omar Abdirahshid  Sharmarke,  enjoys support in his powerbase, Puntland, and has put a lot of effort into convincing the Puntland leadership that the TFG can be serious about federalism although the Sharia law was passed without any consultation with autonomous  administrations. 

“Power struggle is not good news for the Somali president and the prime minister. It will be interpreted as a repeat of the messy power struggles that affected the work of the TFG from   2005 to 2008” says Ali Ahmed  , a Galkacyo based Somali journalist.

In a article in Christian  Science Monitor Alexander Noyes and Richard Bennet, research associates at the Council on Foreign Relations  “argue that Washington should cease direct military aid to Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government, work with regional partners to cut supply lines to the insurgency, and encourage negotiations between the TFG and the Islamist insurgent group al Shabab.”

The absence of benchmark against which to assess the work of the TFG has dissuaded the TFG leadership from starting debate on ways to restore popular trust in federal institutions. Devising a benchmark is not a simple task. Gradually the international community is taking steps to address contradictions in its Somalia policy: financing a transitional government with no governance record at the expense institution building efforts by autonomous regions.

What will happen if Puntland withdraws support for the TFG?

If Puntland-TFG working partnership breaks down, President Sharif may be forced to make peace with the insurgents from a weaker position. The African Union and the United Nations Somali Office will reexamine their approaches to working with the TFG. The TFG has always relied on the support of the international community to pressure its ‘partners’ or opposition into accepting the ‘TFG legitimacy’. The TFG president prefers putting all resources in the TFG coffers whereas the prime minister opts for sharing resources between the TFG and autonomous regions as a trust-building exercise. That is why the Somali president backed the Minister of Fisheries for   signing an agreement that violated the letter and the spirit of the Galkacyo agreement.  The rift within the TFG leadership is a public relations blow of which the insurgents can take advantage.

Liban Ahmad. mailto:Libahm@gmail.com