WASHINGTON, D.C. Dec 31 (Garowe Online) - Following the resignation of President Abdullahi Yusuf, Somalia has entered a new period of uncertainty as political forces on the ground react to one another on the new playing field.

The UN-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) is now tasked with organizing a parliamentary vote to elect the country's next national leader within 30 days, but many fear security will dramatically worsen if Ethiopian troops withdraw as planned.

Fred Ngoga Gatereste

Fred Ngoga Gatereste, the Africa regional manager for IJET Intelligence Risk Systems, a U.S.-based risk management firm, tells Garowe Online the situation in Somalia characterized by chronic insecurity, drought and piracy 'represents an opportunity.'

"In the short-term, we are faced with a lot of dangers," he says, while using the Chinese character Wei-Ji – which means both danger and opportunity – to demonstrate his point.

But, says Mr. Gatereste, the anticipated withdrawal of Ethiopian forces "creates an opportunity to engage the Islamist opposition, including some leaders from Al Shabaab."

A two-year insurgency against Ethiopian troops in Somalia has been spearheaded by Al Shabaab, a multi-clan guerrilla movement that formed the core of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) fighting force in 2006.

The Islamist hardliners reemerged in 2008, capturing key towns and waging near-daily attacks in Mogadishu against the TFG and its foreign allies, including African Union peacekeepers from Uganda and Burundi.

"Al Shabaab is not a monolithic group," says Mr. Gaterestel.

The Djibouti Agreement – a peace pact between the TFG and the moderate wing of the ICU – will eventually have a "positive impact" on Somalia's future, he adds.

"Every time that you bring any faction that has armed supporters to the negotiation table that is a positive development," he says, adding: "If you look at other conflicts on the continent or in the world, conflict resolution has always been more successful when rebels…were engaged."

Somalia, in the Horn of Africa, has been mired in open warfare since the 1990s and has defied numerous international attempts to restore governance. The Ethiopian invasion of 2006 triggered an Islamist rebellion that threatens peace in the region.

Source: Garowe Online