Experts: AU troops drawdown exposing Somalia to Al-Shabaab

MOGADISHU, Somalia - The ongoing drawdown of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) troops from Somalia will expose the country to risks of Al-Shabaab resurgence, a top policy group has warned, citing impending logistics and security challenges.

Balqiis Insights, a non-profit Mogadishu-based Think Tank, notes that the withdrawal leaves significant policy gaps on the long-term sustainability of Somali National Forces once the international troops leave.

The withdrawal is ongoing and the last batch is expected to leave by December 31st, 2024, with a more lean team set to take over but under the control of the Somali National Army. ATMIS will transition to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).

“While the international community remains committed to supporting Somalia, it has not fully addressed the financial and logistical challenges required to maintain a robust security
framework without a large-scale international mission,” the report reads.

According to the report, concerns persist about the potential relapse into instability if Somali forces are unable to manage security on their
own, the Voice of America reports, quoting the group’s publication.

“Success will hinge on bridging the gap between Somalia’s ambition for self-reliance and the practical realities of ongoing security challenges,” it read.

The report concludes that primary threats to Somalia’s security, and by extension the Horn of Africa, continue to be terrorist organizations, al-Shabaab and IS-Somalia. Alshabaab still controls large swathes of rural central and southern regions.

“Al-Shabaab, in particular, retains significant control over rural territories and continues to launch deadly attacks in urban centers,” it said.

Somalia has already backed the new mission which is set to take over by January 2025, with Egypt and Djibouti set to head the teams. However, Somalia insists Ethiopia should not be part of the plan due to ongoing tussles over access to the Red Sea.

Ahmed Moallim Fiqi, Somalia’s Foreign Minister, said the country will not allow Ethiopia to interfere with her territorial integrity and sovereignty. The government of Somalia has declared Al-Shabaab an enemy and various tactics have been employed in eliminating the militants.

GAROWE ONLINE