IMF forecasts Somalia GDP to grow 2.9% in 2019 vs 2.8% last year

NAIROBI - Somalia’s economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year from 2.8% last year, but security risks and vulnerability to climate shocks could cloud the outlook, the International Monetary Fund said.

The Horn of Africa country has experienced conflict since 1991 when clan warlords overthrew President Siad Barre and then turned on each other. Over the past decade, it has been hit by famine and sporadic terror attacks by al Qaeda-linked militant group al Shabaab.

“Economic growth is projected to remain broadly stable at 2.9% in 2019. Inflation is projected to increase temporarily to 4.0% in 2019, due to higher food prices as a result of poor rainfall earlier in the year,” the IMF said.

“Key risks to the outlook continue to reflect the difficult security situation and vulnerability to climate shocks,” it added in a statement late on Wednesday.

In May, the fund had put Somalia’s economic growth forecast at 3%, and inflation projections at 3 to 3.2%.

The International Monetary Fund has been pushing for better management of public finances, while the government is implementing reforms under an agreed staff-monitored program.