Somalia: Hassan Sheikh’s 2019 Support for Jubaland Recalled Amidst Current Rejection of Southwest Vote

MOGADISHU, Somalia — A political document from 2019 has resurfaced in Somali political circles, highlighting a sharp contrast in the stances taken by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud during his time in the opposition versus his current term in office.

The document, a formal congratulatory letter, shows Mohamud—then a leading opposition figure—applauding the re-election of Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe. At the time, the federal government under then-President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo had denounced the Jubaland election as illegal and unconstitutional, refusing to recognize the outcome.

The resurgence of the letter comes as Mohamud’s own administration now faces a strikingly similar standoff with Southwest State. Following the recent re-election of President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed, known as Laftagareen, in Baidoa, the federal presidency has mirrored the previous administration's skepticism, leading to a breakdown in ties between Mogadishu and the regional state.

Political analysts describe the situation as a recurring cycle in Somali governance, where leaders often champion regional autonomy and "inclusive" local processes while in the opposition, only to prioritize centralized federal oversight once they assume the presidency.

The parallel between the 2019 Jubaland crisis and the 2026 Southwest dispute suggests that while the political actors have swapped roles, the underlying tension between central authority and regional states remains the dominant theme of the country's political landscape.

As the 2026 national electoral deadline approaches, the lack of a finalized constitutional agreement on regional elections continues to drive these repetitive cycles of recognition and rejection.

GAROWE ONLINE