Somalia : Tensions Over Ethiopia-Somaliland Agreement Surface

HARGEYSA, Somaliland – Reports have emerged of significant strains in the implementation of the contentious agreement reached on January 1, 2024, between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and breakaway region Muse Bihi Abdi in Addis Ababa. The deal, which involves Ethiopia leasing land in Somaliland for 50 years to develop a port and a naval base, in exchange for Somaliland’s recognition and a stake in Ethiopian Airlines, is now facing critical challenges.

Challenges to the Agreement

According to Garowe Online sources, the agreement’s complications stem from pressures and suspicions expressed by allies of both Abiy and Muse. These pressures are particularly acute for President Bihi, as significant opposition has arisen within Somaliland’s business community. Local traders fear that the continued progress of this agreement could lead to the closure of Berbera Port, adversely affecting the region’s economy. A source close to the matter revealed that these concerns have compelled Bihi to reconsider the terms, insisting on official recognition of his administration by Ethiopia before proceeding with the agreement’s implementation, as a means to alleviate local pressure.

However, Prime Minister Abiy is reportedly hesitant to make such a commitment due to its potential ramifications on Ethiopia’s relations with the Federal Government of Somalia in Mogadishu.

International Reaction and Djibouti’s Concerns

The international community, which still recognizes Somaliland as an autonomous region within Somalia, has broadly condemned the deal. This reaction signifies the global reluctance to endorse initiatives that could destabilize the already volatile Horn of Africa region. Additionally, Djibouti has voiced strong objections to the agreement, fearing the loss of its lucrative trade with Ethiopia if the deal proceeds.

Uncertainty Among Ethiopian Officials

The agreement has also sparked doubts within Ethiopian military circles. Intelligence sources indicate that Abiy initially assured his military leaders of Somalia’s tacit approval of the deal. However, the firm opposition from the Somali Federal Government has led to a withdrawal of this stance, creating significant mistrust among Ethiopian military officials.

Garowe Online continues to monitor this developing story and will provide updates as more information becomes available.