Djibouti: Guelleh's aide resigns as 2026 polls gather momentum

Political temperatures in Djibouti are gathering momentum with reports indicating that President Ismail Omar Guelleh may, after all, contest despite earlier speculations that his health could not allow him to continue being in control.

Alex's Gueldon, a longtime aide to President Ismail Omar Guelleh, resigned from government even as Guelleh appeared to be grooming his stepson Naguib Kamil to succeed him, which could further extend the family rule.

Naguib, who is Afar, was not the choice of the powerful Issa/Mamasan clan to which Guelleh belongs. His candidacy was largely being pushed and popularised by his influential mother, argues Rashid Abdi, a political and security analyst.

"The clan favoured an Issa to replace Ismail Guelleh and to maintain continuity/traditional dominance of the Issa," Abdi says in his popular commentaries.

"Alexis Mohammed Gueldon is Issa/Mamasan and harbours presidential ambitions and likely put forward by the clan to scuttle Naguib's bid," Abdi further adds, in what would likely complicate the 2026 elections.

The Afar are estimated to be around 35% of Djibouti's population; the Issa, 60% (Donelli, 2022). The former foreign minister and current AU Chairman, Mohamoud Ali Youssouf (Afar), was eased out primarily to smooth the path for Naguib and narrow the field of potential contenders for the top seat.

Ismail changed the constitution in 2010 to remove the two-term limit and has governed since 1999. Owing to pressure from Issa, Guelleh is now said to be actively considering running in the April 2026 elections.

The prospect of Guelleh running again puts the Mamasan in a quandary and certainly undercuts Gueldon's bid, especially if the clan decides to rally behind the incumbent, adds Rashid Abdi.

The problem for Guelleh is that the constitution sets an age limit for presidential candidates (75); Guelleh was born in 1947, and so, technically, he cannot run because he will be 77. "A constitutional change to remove the age limit clause now appears highly probable," he said.

Another change of the constitution to keep Ismail Omar in power could inflame discontent, deepen Afar grievances, and prove destabilising. Djibouti is one of the most stable countries within the Horn of Africa, hence its strategic cooperation with the West.

GAROWE ONLINE