Ethiopia’s withdrawal from Burhakaba tests Somalia’s security transition

Analysis

MOGADISHU, Somalia — The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from the strategic military base in Burhakaba has raised concerns about the ability of Somali forces to secure positions transferred by African Union troops as AUSSOM faces financial and logistical uncertainty.

AUSSOM handed over the Burhakaba forward operating base to the Somali National Army’s 60th Division on Aug. 8, with logistical assistance from the United Nations Support Office in Somalia.

Ethiopian troops had occupied the base since 2014 while serving under successive African Union missions. Local reports said the contingent left the town shortly after the handover ceremony, although Ethiopian forces remain deployed at other locations in the Bay and Bakool regions.

Some of the information and assessments in this report were drawn from an analysis published by Horn Review, an Addis Ababa-based Ethiopian research and media organization.

Burhakaba lies on the important road connecting Mogadishu with Baidoa. Although government forces control the town, al-Shabab maintains influence in parts of the surrounding countryside. That makes Burhakaba an important test of whether Somali forces can defend positions transferred by foreign troops.

The handover is part of a broader plan to transfer security responsibility to Somali institutions. However, it comes before questions over AUSSOM’s financing, logistical support and the preparedness of Somali forces have been resolved.

AUSSOM replaced the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia at the beginning of 2025. It was designed to support Somali forces while gradually transferring responsibility for the country’s security.

The United States informed the African Union in July that it would not support the continuation of U.N. logistical assistance to AUSSOM beyond Dec. 31. Washington did not oppose renewing the mission itself but said it would not support a resolution maintaining UNSOS logistical and operational assistance.

UNSOS provides AUSSOM with fuel, food, transportation, communications, medical evacuation and other essential services. The African Union has warned that the mission would struggle to operate at its current level without that support.

Countries contributing troops to AUSSOM called during a meeting in Kampala in late July for an orderly transition lasting between 18 and 24 months. They also appealed for predictable financing, but no fully funded alternative to UNSOS has been announced.

The financial uncertainty coincides with growing political and security tensions inside Somalia.

Recent fighting in Baidoa between federal troops and forces aligned with former South West state President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen resulted in deaths and injuries. Al-Shabab also carried out attacks during the same period, demonstrating how the group can exploit divisions between Somali authorities.

Disputes between the federal government and some federal member states over elections, constitutional changes and political power-sharing have weakened national security coordination. Without political cooperation, reinforcing transferred positions and organizing joint operations across administrative boundaries could become more difficult.

Al-Shabab has previously exploited security gaps created by foreign troop withdrawals. The group frequently targets supply routes, surrounding settlements and smaller military positions in an effort to isolate forces stationed in major towns.

Somali troops defending Burhakaba could therefore face pressure around the town and along the roads connecting it with Baidoa and Mogadishu.

The 60th Division has experience fighting in Bay and Bakool. However, Somali forces do not always possess the heavy weapons, intelligence capabilities, air support and sustained logistics previously available to Ethiopian units.

Al-Shabab continues to raise revenue, recruit fighters and adapt its tactics. Security analysts say the group has expanded its use of drones for surveillance.

Reports have also emerged about connections between al-Shabab and Yemen’s Houthi movement. Available information indicates contact and possible arms trading, but the extent of technical or operational cooperation has not been independently confirmed.

Ethiopia has long regarded al-Shabab as a threat to its national security. Ethiopian forces operating in Bay, Bakool and areas near the border have helped restrict the group’s movement toward eastern Ethiopia.

A rapid or poorly coordinated withdrawal could compel Addis Ababa to reinforce its domestic border deployments. It could also increase the risk of cross-border attacks, population displacement and disruption to regional trade.

The future of Burhakaba will depend on more than the number of soldiers stationed at the former Ethiopian base. Somali authorities will need to protect supply routes, cooperate with local communities and provide intelligence, air support and reliable logistics. Political cooperation between the federal government and the federal member states will also be essential.

A carefully managed transfer could demonstrate that Somali forces are becoming capable of defending important positions. An accelerated and underfunded withdrawal, however, could give al-Shabab an opportunity to isolate towns, recover territory and undermine Somalia’s security transition.

Burhakaba is therefore more than a military base transferred from one force to another. It represents the wider challenge facing Somalia and its partners as international funding declines, African Union troops reduce their presence and al-Shabab searches for weaknesses in the emerging security order.