Federal State in Central Somalia may stoke fresh grudges [Editorial]

GAROWE ONLINE EDITORIAL|Somalia’s nascent federalism is facing watershed moments, with endeavors to form a federal state in central Somalia and politicians seeking to fit into presidency dashing hope for long-awaited tranquility and might even stoke another grudge in largely restive region.

Since the establishment of Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in 2004, there had been differences-that for quite some time degenerated into damaging infighting-over federated Somalia and perhaps they have split the country’s political leadership into cabals.

Before the Federal Government, Federal states, most importantly Puntland which to date leads by example as prototype sought a system that could be emulated for future cases; Followed by Jubaland in 2013 and more recently Interim South-West administration. In accordance to Article 49 of Provisional Federal Constitution (PFC) two or more pre-war (existed before 1991) regions may merge to form a federal Member State based on a voluntary decision.  

The formation of Jubaland sparked more complex disputes that subsequently devolved into deadly battles between Mogadishu-based Federal Government’s widely speculated proxy Col. Barre Adan Shire (Barre Hirale) and local forces loyal to Jubaland President Sheikh Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe) in mid-2013.

At the onset, state formation process in Baidoa posed challenges, and the struggle for political dominance fluttered, dividing politicians into two camps. Nevertheless on March 3, President Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan brought much confusion to an end by including rival six-region state backers in 63-member cabinet lineup.

Both Jubaland and South West State administrations came as a result of regional conventions which brought political and community leaders together.

Central State ‘Pandora’s box’

On July 30, 2014, Galmudug, paramilitary group of Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamea and Himan and Heeb which maintain military presence in central Somalia signed a blueprint aimed at pushing local communities in Galgadud and South Mudug into regional autonomy in Mogadishu.

On April 16, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud launched state formation convention in Adado town without Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamea, a faction considered to be wielding some influence.

Reacting to Mogadishu agreement, Puntland President Dr. Abdiweli Mohamed Ali was quick to cast off, and withdrew support for UN-backed weak central government for fear of encroachment on July 31-something many questioned, with North Mudug being engrossed at consentaneity.

On October 14, 2014, a deal clinched by former Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed Mohamed and Puntland President cleared the air for concerns and reversed fait accompli a little.

The political battle over the legitimacy of future federal member state consisting of Galgadud and Mudug took to trajectory path as both sides [Puntland and Somalia’s Federal Government] backed their claims with clauses from the Provisional Federal Constitution (PFC).

Some analysts clung to the theme that Federal Constitution proscribes split of a region while others voiced support for Puntland’s standpoint on Mudug. The debate continues to put federalization process on tenterhooks, and many Somalis see central state as Pandora’s Box.

Will the gloves be off?

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud who threw his support behind former National Security Minister and Damjadid [ruling New Blood cabal] heavyweight Abdikarin Hussein Guled has once again underlined that central state wouldn’t encroach into Puntland but insisted that ‘Mudug’ could exist by name.

In what appears to be changing the equation, Gulled slammed the outcome of consultative conference in Garowe, and said North Mudug residents have the final say on their federal state of choice.

Somalia’s Ambassador to Ethiopia, Ahmed Abdisalan is another aspirant for the coveted post and enjoys the backing of former Prime Ministers Ali Mohamed Geddi and Nur Hassan Hussein (Nur Adde). However he is throwing his hat into a ring beset with controversies and difficult tests in a country mired into a protracted conflict for more than two decades. 

Somalia’s nascent federalism is facing watershed moments, with endeavors to form a federal state in central Somalia and politicians seeking to fit into presidency dashing hope for long-awaited tranquility and might even stoke another grudge in largely restive region. Beyond the doubt, contestants can narrow the gap and Central state front-runners for presidency are so much alike-either purveyors of hostility or agents of peace.  

Garowe Online Editorial-Please send questions/comments to: editorial@garoweonline.com /contact@garoweonline.com