Somalia : Will Hassan Sheikh Invade Hiran as He Did Baidoa?

MOGADISHU, Somalia (GO) — The decision by the Justice and Solidarity Party, or JSP, to select Ali Gudlawe as its candidate for the Hirshabelle presidency has revived a long-running dispute over power-sharing in the regional state. It has also raised questions about whether Villa Somalia could use military force in Hiran, as it did in Baidoa.

Somalia’s federal government, whose mandate has expired, took control of Baidoa by force after Abdiaziz Laftagareen rejected Villa Somalia’s preferred electoral model, despite having previously worked with the federal leadership on constitutional amendments.

The JSP subsequently awarded the South West State presidential ticket to Adan Madobe, while Liban Shuluq was selected for Galmudug and Ali Gudlawe for Hirshabelle. Under the electoral model being advanced by Hassan Sheikh, the candidate awarded the JSP ticket is effectively positioned to be elected president of the respective regional state, eliminating meaningful competition and the prospect of a fair election. Somali politicians have compared the arrangement to the tightly controlled elections once conducted by the Somali Revolutionary Socialist Party under the country’s former military dictatorship.

Hirshabelle, located in south-central Somalia, was established in 2016 through the merger of the Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions. The original political agreement designated Jowhar as the state capital and allocated the presidency to the Hawadle clan. The dispute intensified in 2020 when the presidency shifted to Ali Gudlawe, an Abgaal—a move that sections of the Hiran community regarded as a violation of the power-sharing agreement.

Although Hirshabelle is inhabited by several communities, competition for its leadership has largely involved the Hawadle and Abgaal clans. The Hawadle have long objected to Hiran being governed from Jowhar, which is situated in an area predominantly inhabited by the Abgaal.

Hirshabelle Vice President Yusuf Dabageed has accused Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of breaking a promise to return the state presidency to the Hawadle. The Hawadle—Hassan Sheikh’s maternal clan—had waited for him to fulfil those commitments, but the selection of Gudlawe has deepened perceptions that they have again been denied the regional leadership.

The Hawadle also spearheaded the 2022 uprising against Al-Shabaab that began in Hiran. Local fighters, widely known as the Macawiisley, liberated numerous areas across Hiran and parts of Middle Shabelle before the federal government fully joined the campaign. The International Crisis Group previously reported that the federal government capitalised on the Hawadle uprising to launch its broader offensive against Al-Shabaab.

There is currently no independently verified information showing that Villa Somalia plans to deploy troops to Hiran to enforce the electoral process. However, the federal takeover of Baidoa and the fighting that followed demonstrated how a political dispute could develop into an armed confrontation.

Somalis are now asking whether, after responding to opposition in Baidoa with federal forces carrying weapons intended for the war against Al-Shabaab, former President Hassan Sheikh will take the same approach toward the resistance emerging in Hiran—particularly from the Hawadle, his maternal relatives.

GAROWE ONLINE