Uganda's Troop Withdrawal Raises Security Concerns Around Somalia's Capital

MOGADISHU, Somalia — Uganda's withdrawal of troops from key military positions in southern Somalia has raised fresh concerns about security around the capital Mogadishu, where African Union forces have played a major role in preventing attacks by Al-Shabaab militants.

The four positions from which Uganda has begun withdrawing its soldiers — Sabid and Caanoole, Bariire, Awdheegle and Buulo-Gaduud — are considered strategically important for connecting southern Somalia with Mogadishu and protecting routes leading to the capital.

The locations are particularly significant in Lower Shabelle, a region that has witnessed years of fighting between Somali government forces and Al-Shabaab, which has waged an insurgency against the internationally backed government for more than a decade.

Regional security analyst Samira Gaid said areas surrounding Mogadishu, particularly in Lower Shabelle and around key bridges, served as an important defensive belt for the capital.

Ugandan troops have maintained positions in these areas for years, helping secure strategic routes and prevent militant advances towards Mogadishu.

Uganda has already repatriated 109 soldiers who departed from Mogadishu last week as part of a broader plan to reduce its military presence in Somalia.

The Ugandan military announced on November 2 that it would gradually withdraw all its forces from Somalia, including troops serving under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).

The withdrawal is expected to be completed by the end of 2027.

Somalia's federal government has said its national army will take over the military positions vacated by Ugandan forces.

Army chief General Mohamed Ali Barise said preparations for the handover had already been made, indicating that Somali forces were expected to assume responsibility for securing the locations.

However, questions remain over whether the Somali military has sufficient manpower, equipment and logistical capacity to maintain control of the strategically important positions.

The concerns come as AUSSOM faces significant financial constraints that have affected the mission's ability to provide troops with adequate supplies, transport and operational support.

The African Union mission plays a central role in supporting Somali forces in operations against Al-Shabaab, which continues to control parts of the countryside and carry out attacks against military installations, government officials and civilians.

Security analysts have warned that any gaps created by the withdrawal could provide an opportunity for the militants to regain ground or increase pressure on communities surrounding the capital.

A failure by Somali forces to establish effective control over the vacated positions could also threaten important supply routes and undermine security gains made during years of joint operations with African Union troops.

The withdrawal marks another significant stage in Somalia's long-running effort to assume full responsibility for its national security after decades of reliance on international military support.

It also presents a major test for the federal government, which must demonstrate that its forces can independently defend strategic territory, protect major routes and prevent Al-Shabaab from exploiting the changing security arrangements.

The success of the transition will depend not only on the physical handover of military bases but also on whether Somali forces receive the necessary personnel, equipment, funding and logistical support to hold them.

GAROWE ONLINE