Jubaland: We are not ready for exit of Ethiopian troops

KISMAYO, Somalia - Jubaland state has joined its Southwest neighbours in defending the presence of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), arguing that their exit will compromise security arrangements across the country given the complex and evolving threats posed by Al-Shabaab.

The Ethiopian troops serve in the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and are credited for dislodging Al-Shabaab from strategic areas across Somalia. Notably, Ethiopian troops man sections of Southwest and Jubaland.

Mohamud Sayid Aden, the Vice President of Jubaland, said the recent announcement by Hussein Sheikh Ali, the National Security Advisor, has triggered tensions in the Ethiopian contingent working in Somalia, and who are uncertain about their future.

"This will only benefit Kharwarij,” Jubaland Deputy President Mohamud Sayid Aden told VOA’s Somali Service, using Mogadishu’s preferred term for al-Shabab militants. Calling it an overall “difficult situation,” Aden added: “It’s not a matter that can be agreed upon by the stakeholders.”

Earlier, Southwest security minister Hassan Abdulkadir Mohamed told VOA that Southwest administration officials “are happy with the presence of Ethiopian troops.”

"If ATMIS are going to be removed from the country, it needs to be discussed and no one can make a unilateral decision,” he said. “Southwest is happy to have Ethiopian troops stay."

Ethiopia is yet to issue statement with regard to new developments. Observers believe the stand by Somalia could trigger challenges between Somalia and the African Union which is in charge of the stabilisation mission.

“I am not sure if this decision has been communicated officially to the AU for them to take the necessary actions,” said prominent Horn of Africa security analyst Samira Gaid.

“The AU has now the additional challenge of mediating between its member states on this post-ATMIS question after it has been unable to do so on the MOU,” she told VOA’s Somali Service. “So, this can be interpreted as an escalation after 6 months of the MOU being made public.”

Gaid is also unsure if Mogadishu and AU officials will have time to arrange replacement forces. ATMIS started withdrawing from the country last year and the final contingent is expected to leave by December 2024.

“The government alluded to existing TCCs [Troop Contributing Countries] taking on that responsibility,” she said.

“However, the likelihood of existing TCCs stepping in, organizing themselves in the remaining time, and operating in Bay and Bakool without clarity on the possible political challenges they would face — and clarity on the wider post-ATMIS questions of resourcing, mandate and numbers — remains to be seen.”

This month, ATMIS is set to offload 5,000 soldiers according to officials implementing the Somali Transition Plan (STP). The government of Somalia had initially insisted it would handle gaps created upon the exit of the mission troops.

GAROWE ONLINE