Renewed Fighting in Ethiopia Could Reshape Its Military Role in Somalia

MOGADISHU, Somalia — Ethiopia is preparing to withdraw more than 3,000 troops from Somalia as renewed fighting inside Ethiopia puts pressure on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government to shift military resources toward the growing conflict at home, people familiar with the matter said.

The troops could leave Somalia in the coming days or weeks, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the plans who were not authorized to speak publicly.

It was not immediately clear whether the reported withdrawal would include Ethiopian troops serving with the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), forces deployed under bilateral security agreements with Mogadishu, or both.

A Somali defence official said on Thursday that the government had not received any formal notification from Addis Ababa about a troop withdrawal. Ethiopia has also not publicly confirmed the reported plans.

Ethiopia has thousands of troops in Somalia and is a key security partner of the federal government in its fight against Al-Shabaab, the al Qaeda-linked militant group. Ethiopian forces have operated in several parts of Somalia for years, including areas close to the two countries' long border.

Any substantial reduction in Ethiopian forces could create additional security challenges, particularly in areas where they have supported Somali forces in operations against Al-Shabaab.

Ethiopia has previously moved troops out of Somalia when fighting intensified inside the country. During the two-year Tigray war that began in 2020, Ethiopian forces were reportedly redeployed from Somalia to support military operations at home.

The latest reported withdrawal plans come as fighting has again intensified in northern Ethiopia, particularly in Tigray, where federal forces and allied groups have clashed with Tigrayan forces and other armed factions.

The renewed violence follows a 2022 peace agreement that ended the devastating Tigray conflict. Recent fighting has reportedly involved ground operations and drone strikes, while disruptions to communications and transport have complicated access to affected areas.

The previous war killed hundreds of thousands of people. Researchers and international organisations have put the death toll at hundreds of thousands, although estimates vary because access to the region was severely restricted during the conflict.

Diplomatic sources and video evidence cited by Reuters have indicated that pro-government forces captured the strategic town of Alamata in Tigray and advanced towards Mekelle, the regional capital. The claims could not immediately be independently verified.

The renewed fighting has also raised concerns about a broader escalation. Tigrayan forces have developed ties with other armed groups opposed to Abiy's government, potentially widening the conflict beyond Tigray.

Ethiopian officials have accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting opposition forces, allegations that the three countries have rejected. The accusations have added to tensions in an already volatile Horn of Africa region.

The conflict has also raised humanitarian concerns, with communications disrupted in parts of Tigray and access for aid organisations becoming more difficult.

For Somalia, a significant Ethiopian troop withdrawal could place additional pressure on Somali security forces and other international forces battling Al-Shabaab.

The possible move comes as Somalia prepares for further changes to the international security presence, including a broader transition toward Somali-led security operations, making any reduction in Ethiopian military support potentially consequential for security along the border and elsewhere in the country.

GAROWE ONLINE