Turkey dispatches drones to Gedo as Jubaland feud with FGS soars

MOGADISHU, Somalia - The ongoing crisis in the Gedo region of Jubaland pitting the Kismayo authorities and the Federal Government of Somalia [FGS] could escalate following multiple reports that Turkey is now fully engaged in the squabbles, which could have negative repercussions to the planned elections in the Horn of Africa nation.

For years, Turkey has been closely working with the FGS especially under the administration of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, with their cooperation ranging from supporting infrastructural activities within Somalia to training local security forces.

But more often than not, the opposition has always cautioned Ankara against supporting "violation" of Somalia's constitution especially the use of force to suppress those calling for accountability in the administration of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo.

The current pre-election standoff seems now to be gathering momentum in the Gedo region within Jubaland, where FGS been reportedly deploying Turkish-trained Gorgor troops and the Harma'ad police officers, who Jubaland has demanded their withdrawal for elections to take place as planned.

However, the troops are yet to leave, and on the contrary, there have been an additional number of troops to the region, forcing Jubaland to stand with the initial decision of denouncing any electoral activity within Jubaland. Nationally, the country is also yet to reach a consensus for the elections which were to kick off from early December.

And reports from Gedo indicate that Turkey has now dispatched an aircraft to the region besides unleashing surveillance drones, further confirming the involvement of Ankara in the crisis, which not only threatens the stability of the country but also invokes the probability of proxy wars in Somalia.

Turkey is said to be providing logistical support to SNA in pacifying the region and getting rid of forces loyal to Jubaland president Ahmed Madobe. This follows the deployment of hundreds of Turkish-trained Gorgor troops in Dolow, Gedo region on Sunday.

In 2017, Turkey has set up its biggest overseas military base in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, increasing Ankara’s presence in the Horn of Africa country.

Camp TURKSOM which has cost $50m is training 10,000 Somali troops and has the capacity to train at least 1,500 soldiers at a time, according to Turkish and Somali officials.

Ankara has been increasing its foothold in the strategic country with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visiting the horn of Africa country twice since 2011.

Opposition outcries

While both Ankara and Mogadishu are yet to respond to the latest reports, it's however clear that the Turkish-trained troops have been manning the region, which borders Kenya. Somalia accuses Kenya of equipping Jubaland security forces in an attempt to attack SNA bases within Gedo.

Early this month, the council of presidential candidates in Somalia raised a similar matter, warning that Turkey was dispatching weapons and ammunition to Somalia. While the team encouraged the training of local forces by giving them enabling tactics in the fight against Al-Shabaab, they, however, questioned the timing.

"We are concerned with the planned delivery of weapons and ammunition from the Turkish govt to the Harma'ad this sensitive time. The council has learned that a Turkish military aircraft TUAF767, is set to deliver 1,000G3 Machine guns ABC 150,000 bullets between Mogadishu and December 16 and 18," read a statement from the team.

"While acknowledging the importance of training and capacity building for the Somali security apparatus, the council is nevertheless worried about the number of weapons and ammunition flooding to the country during this electoral period," it further noted.

Farmajo, they argued, "has already used Harma'ad to coerce and rig regional elections and there is no doubt that the same forces will be used to do the same". The troops have previously been linked to controversial elections in Hirshabelle, Southwest, and Galmadug states where the government-sponsored candidates won.

Mogadishu has been blaming Kenya for chaos in Gedo and even claimed Nairobi was arming militia in Gedo, a claim which has been dismissed by both Kenya and Jubaland, who accuse Farmajo of "creating a crisis" for the sake of his survival. Kenya is one of the AMISOM force contributing nations in Somalia.

The presence of Turkey in Gedo, analysts say, could jeopardize the commitment by Kenya and Somalia to deescalate the border tension as agreed in the extraordinary IGAD heads of state and government assembly. The two teams agreed to have dialogue for the same of curbing a possible fallout that could pave way for Al-Shabaab resurgence.

Turkey's poor foreign security record

This is not the first time Turkey is been dragged to sensitive security issues across the world. For instance, Ankara has been heavily involved in the Middle East crisis in Syria where thousands of people have been killed over years, something which has raised concerns among the members of the international community.

Last November, Libya’s embattled Government of the National Accord was under siege in Tripoli by the Egyptian-backed Khalifa Haftar. Haftar, with a rival government based in Benghazi, appeared to be on the verge of ousting the dysfunctional GNA.

Several officials in Libya say their side entered the deals with Turkey reluctantly, late last year, believing they had no choice. They desperately needed an ally as their opponent in the war, Libyan commander Khalifa Hifter, bore down on Tripoli with his forces, strengthened by Russian, Emirati and Egyptian backing, AP reported.

“It was like a give-and-take game,” said one official in Tripoli-based Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj’s office. “They took advantage of our weakness at the time.” He and other officials spoke on condition of anonymity, fearing for their safety in a country largely ruled by an array of militias.

In the end, Turkey sent troops and thousands of Syrian mercenaries totaling around 3,500 and other military support that helped pro-Sarraj forces repel Hifter’s assault this spring, preventing the collapse of the Tripoli-based administration and shifting the tide of the war.

GAROWE ONLINE