US doubts SNA's capacity to defeat Al-Shabaab in Somalia

MOGADISHU, Somalia - The Somalia National Army [SNA] has no capacity to dislodge Al-Shabaab militants from Somalia, State Department has said, in a report which could significantly influence decisions by foreign troops on whether to leave or remain in the Horn of Africa nation.

There are close to 23,000 foreign troops, mainly from AU in the war-torn nation, with the majority of them being sourced from the African Union contributing nations and have been operating under AMISOM. The Africa Union troops are set to leave in 2021.

But in a report compiled by the US, the SNA forces are portrayed as a young and under-equipped army which cannot wage a meaningful operation against the Al-Qaida linked militants, who have contributions largely to insecurity problems bedeviling Somalia.

Estimates done by the UN indicate that there are close to 7,000 active Al-Shabaab fighters in Somalia. The militants control large swathes of rural southern and central Somalia and have often targeted security forces in their frequent retaliatory attacks.

Data collected by the State Department shows that the group waged over 1,000 successful attacks within and outside Somalia, further raising doubts about the capability of SNA troops to neutralize the militants. Dubbed Country Reports on Terrorism 2019, the report identifies Kenya as the worst hit by the group's external attacks.

This year alone, Al-Shabaab has managed to raid Kenya over 20 times, leaving close to 30 people dead. The most notable attack was in Jan 5 when the militants raided Manda Airfield which hosts elite US Marine Corps, in an attack that left three Americans dead.

Although the group has been significantly degraded due to multi-agency operations, it continues to execute small to large scale sporadic attacks. Al-Shabaab uses IEDs and VBIEDs when launching attacks.

The group funds its actions through “illegal charcoal production and exports, taxation of local populations and businesses, and by means of remittances and other money transfers from the Somali diaspora,” the report adds.

But of significance, mafia-style taxation, abductions, and illegal businesses remain the primary source of income for the group. Intelligence reports released by Kenya also linked Somalia's spy agency NISA of consistent funding of Al-Shabaab, but the federal government dismissed the allegations as "concocted innuendos" in a statement released in April.

There were also reports about ongoing defections from the group due to "irreconcilable" differences between Ahmed Omar [Abu Ubaidah], the group's leader, and his deputy Mahad Karate who is also Amniyat head, but Al-Shabaab has often downplayed the claims.

Although the SNA force has been launching sophisticated operations against the Al-Shabaab, it has often depended on military assistance from AMISOM troops and those from the US Africa Command for logistical support and even ground combats.

The operations have left dozens of Al-Shabaab dead since the beginning of 2020 and the most notable victory against the group came on March 16 at Janaale, an agricultural-rich town where the militants were dominant. The town, which is located in Lower Shebelle, is now under government forces.

On the other hand, US Africa Command [AFRICOM], has managed to execute 40 aerial bombardments against Al-Shabaab in 2020, further helping in the efforts to defeat the group. The US, which has close to 500 soldiers in Somalia, recently hinted at staying in the country until 2027, a move that would see them train more Danab troops.

While the report does not mention specific operations where SNA has failed to counter the militants, the army has often suffered casualties in Al-Shabaab engineered attacks, with the El-Salini military base raid being the worst setbacks this year.

In the last one week, the militants have targeted three military bases in Middle and Lower Shebelle, but the most notable was on Tuesday when a suicide bomber detonated outside a Turkish-run military base in Mogadishu, killing one civilian in the process. This is yet again another indication that SNA may not be prepared to tackle Al-Shabaab.

Sluggish reforms

According to the report, the Federal Government of Somalia and the Armed forces failed to implement key aspects of security reforms, a move which further derails efforts to empower the SNA I preparation for future Al-Shabaab raids.

Somali officials, the report observed, “failed to implement vital national security reforms and pass legislation that could help enhance the government’s capacity to secure and govern effectively at all levels."

But it finds that the federal government “remained a willing partner to US efforts to improve the quality of policing entities throughout the country.” The Kenyan government is also described as a “willing US partner” in investigating, prosecuting, and responding to terrorist attacks.

Some of the reforms which were envisioned by the US, a major military and development partner in Africa, where the implementation of biometric registration, which would among others, help curb massive corruption within the top echelons of the military.

Although some soldiers have been enlisted, there are close to 9,000 who work with SNA and are yet to be renumerated despite rendering services. On Sunday, a section of these troops unleashed a short-lived mutiny, which the army general Yusuf Rageh Odowaa termed as "unnecessary".

In what seems to be a response to the mutiny, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo instigated reshuffles, which saw Infantry Corps commander Abdihamid Mohamed transferred to Navy, which is considered a weaker service within the military. He was replaced by Gen. Abass Amin Ali, formerly the Navy boss.

There have been also complaints about the politicization of the military, a claim which further erodes confidence in the army. President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, who is accused of using the military for political purposes, recently said that recruitment will no longer be done based on clans.

KDF factor

While Kenya remains a key partner in the fight against Al-Shabaab, it's involvement has often left Somalia furious, further leaving the US "deeply" concerned over the negative ripple effects as demonstrated by protest from Somalia government.

The KDF troops, the report notes, were reported to have engaged in human rights violations in their counter-terrorism operations. Alleged abuses included extra-judicial killings, disappearances, and torture we're recorded in various incidents.

KDF, which invaded Somalia in 2011 before joining AMISOM in 2012, mans Sectors II and VI of AMISOM jurisdictions within Somalia. Their presence in Jubaland and close association with regional leader Ahmed Madobe has often angered Mogadishu.

For instance, a standoff was witnessed in Gedo early this year when SNA troops opened fire against Jubaland regional forces, and Somalia would later accuse KDF of protecting the JSF. The US has since intervened by calling for a ceasefire.

But in the report, the Kenyan police and army are lauded for their response to the January 2019 DusitD2 Hotel attack. Their performance on that occasion was “in line with international standards for the protection of human rights in response to terrorist threats and attacks,” the report says.

Kenya's prosecution of suspected terrorists exhibits both progress and shortcomings, the US finds, in a move that could place in radar from human rights groups especially Amnesty International.

“Terrorism case trials often proceeded slowly and inefficiently,” the report states, noting that the three remaining defendants in the 2013 Westgate Mall attack were still on trial at the end of 2019.

“Significant victories” achieved last year included the reinstatement of convictions and 15-year sentences of two Iranians involved in a disrupted bomb plot in 2012. Also last year, a Kenyan court found three of four defendants guilty of the 2015 Garissa University massacre.

GAROWE ONLINE