Abiy Ahmed: Farmajo's partner in crime?

NAIROBI, Kenya - For decades, unity in the Horn of Africa has been a key concern across the world, with persistent conflicts, terrorism, and general political instability being some of the shortcomings, which have dragged the region from progressing social-economically.

But for the last few years, this approach seems to have significantly changed, following cooperation between Abiy Ahmed, Isaias Afwerki, and President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, who has been at the helm for the past four years.

While the partnership has been largely anchored on a development basis, critics have often taken a swipe at the three, accusing them of being dictators, with little regard to the rule of law. Ethiopia and Somalia have particularly been in shambles.

In recent months, Abiy Ahmed has struggled with ethnic cleansing besides the Tigray war, which has significantly tainted his reputation as a nationalist. Thousands of people are believed to have been killed in the Tigray region by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces [ENDF] with the help of Eritrea troops.

Over the weekend, Farmajo was one of the first leaders across the region to congratulate Abiy Ahmed, following Prosperity Party's landslide victory in parliamentary polls. The party scooped 410 out of 436 seats in an election that was widely boycotted by the opposition.

"I warmly congratulate PM Abiy Ahmed Ali on regaining a strong mandate from the people of Ethiopia," he wrote. "Somalia will continue to work with his government to further strengthen our bilateral relations to benefit our two people and the wider region. I wish you great success, Mr. PM."

Tigray region and some parts of Amhara and Somali region did not go to elections due to insecurity concerns brought about by ethnic cleansing and the recent war at the North where Farmajo was accused of plotting to "exterminate" Tigrayans.

Somali soldiers in Tigray

The relationship between the two leaders has significantly blossomed in what analysts term as "dangerous" cooperation at the Horn. At home, Farmajo is battling for re-election after his term expired on Feb 8 this year.

As part of broader plans to strengthen the Somali National Army [SNA], Afwerki offered to train close to 5,000 young soldiers, something which has triggered heated political debate in Somalia. The soldiers were sneaked out of the country in 2019 on the pretext that they are taken to Qatar.

At Asmara, multiple sources including the UN Special Rapporteur intimated that they were sneaked to Tigray where they reportedly participated in the war that left thousands of people dead. While the Somali government claims they not anywhere in Tigray, evidence given by locals has proven otherwise.

For instance, a statement by Tigray People's Liberation Front [TPLF] otherwise known as Tigray Defense Forces [TDF] accused the Somali troops of participating in the Tigray war, adding that more evidence will be provided soon.

According to TPLF, a number of Somali soldiers were captured and are now in their custody. They are traced to Eritrea where they were being trained in a clandestine mission which has since been exposed by the media.

The US recently demanded to know the role played by both Eritrea and Somali soldiers in the Tigray war, in a series of questions filed against the State Department. Tigray region has been at loggerheads with Abiy Ahmed for the last two years.

Ethiopia's interference in Somalia

Since Abiy Ahmed took over in 2018, Ethiopian troops have often been accused of running the show in Somalia, with the federal government in Mogadishu giving them free will to call shots on different matters.

For instance, the Ethiopian troops were directly involved in clashes that left,11 people dead in Baidoa, where the federal government was keen to block former Al-Shabaab deputy leader Mukhtar Robow from running for Southwest presidency.

Supporters of Robow were killed by Ethiopia's troops, who later arrested that former Al-Shabaab commander. Robow is currently under house arrest and there have been calls to release him from house detention, with the former commander now going for a "hunger strike".

In addition, Ethiopian National Defense Forces [ENDF] have directly been linked to Farmajo's efforts to take full control of the Gedo region, which is under Jubaland authorities. The AMISOM team confirmed last year that the non-Amisom contingent of ENDF was on a charm offensive to help Farmajo reclaim the region in 2020.

Among others, the ENDF was accused of arresting local administrators loyal to President Ahmed Islam Mohamed Madobe, who is a chief critic of Farmajo. Currently, PM Mohamed Roble was tasked to help coordinate Gedo region polls after local leadership expressed reservations for Farmajo.

In 2019, Getachew Rada, the spokesperson of TPLF, claimed that Ethiopian soldiers were keen to topple Madobe during elections that were held in August. However, acting on intelligence, Jubaland Security Forces and those from Kenya Defense Forces [KDF] blocked an Ethiopian aircraft carrying mercenaries from landing in Kismayo.

The interference by Ethiopia has often seen Jubaland write to the African Union, the United Nations among other stakeholders, seeking answers. Both Mogadishu and Addis Ababa have often denied the allegations.

GAROWE ONLINE