Somalia, neighbours, must not drop the ball on Al-Shabaab in pandemic season

EDITORIAL | Somalia’s burden of novel coronavirus disease may already be getting compounded. By Friday morning this week, the Federal Ministry of Health reported 328 cases after 42 more patients tested positive.

In a country where 16 people have died from COVID-19 so far, Somalia is still under the global average of 5 per cent fatality rate of COVID-19. Yet the rising number of patients could further strain the health infrastructure of a country already beaten down by other forces.

One of those forces is al-Qaeda affiliated militants al-Shabaab (though some splinter groups associated with ISIS). The group has killed at least 500 people every year since President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo took power in February 2017. That is not to say that previous administrations were any better.

But the President, in his initial speeches, gave an indication of targeting the group by any tools available to ensure they are decimated. He promised to bombard them, limiting their financial resources as well as a possibility of engaging them in talks, however controversial it looked then.

His term now only has under a year left, going by the planned political calendar to have elections in February 2021. The assessment so far is that al-Shabaab remains a potent enemy. One situational analysis by the US Africa Command recently, for example, says the threat posed by al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia in East Africa remains “high” especially since the group has changed tactics to evade conventional warfare. The African Union Mission in Somalia admits that every inch of the liberated region in Somalia must be followed with a robust national security structure, to ensure al-Shabaab does not re-occupy them.

If the President still had time to turn the tide of insecurity round, then the coming of COVID-19 adds to the burden. Already, al-Shabaab had used the COVID-19 pandemic to spread propaganda and gain mileage in Somalia. Its spokespeople termed the viral disease as brought by “the crusader forces who have invaded the country and the disbelieving countries that support them.”

There is no proof that COVID-19 is a biological warfare, or a weapon targeting Somalis. When the Federal Ministry announced the first case on March 16, it was from a Somali citizen who had come from China, which is not a country directly involved in the affairs of Somalia’s stability.

But al-Shabaab controls much of southern Somalia and have remained strong despite aerial bombardments from Somalia’s allies, the US. The message about external forces was released just after the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres asked for a global ceasefire by all combatants to in the wake of the pandemic. Even Somalia’s partners issued a statement calling on all groups “to cease acts of violence and terrorism and to enable assistance to reach communities in need.”

Somalia’s problem, nay the Federal Government of Somalia, is to ensure a working relationship returns with federal member states. Since 2018, some federal member states had suspended working cooperation with Mogadishu, citing interference from the FGS.

We worry that if such concerns are not addressed now, there will be broken links between the various levels of administration in Somalia.

Somalia already has its problems. Some 2.6 million people are displaced from their homes by insecurity, floods or drought. A big number of 6.3 million is at risk of hunger, according to UN figures.

In this pandemic season, terror merchants tend to take advantage of the distraction to establish their terrifying regime. In late March, ISIS, for example, asked affiliated groups to strike more as authorities, their key opponents, would be distracted by COVID-19.

There is little reason to believe al-Shabaab will be humane and cease attacks this time. They would believe its enemies have been weakened or diverted their key resources to combat coronavirus.

We believe that while Somalia, allies and neighbouring countries must do everything to limit the scourge of COVID-19, dropping the ball against al-Shabaab will be equally dangerous.

Al-Shabaab doesn’t keep prisoners (except, of course, in cases of hostage-taking for ransom). But it has weird ambitions to spread its gospel of death. The FGS, federal states, neighbouring countries and partners must continue to beat the terrorists down.

This is because the militant group is unlikely to follow instructions on hygiene, and could, where they are stronger, try to counter government directives on social distancing or avoiding public gatherings.

President Farmajo’s government must use clerics to counter the propaganda. It must use the military tool to weaken their strength in attacks. And it must cooperate with federal states, and neighbouring countries to ensure the groups do not re-strategise or move with ease.

GAROWE ONLINE