Somalia President Faces Political Deadlock and Rising Militancy As His Term Winds Down

MOGADISHU, Somalia - President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term is in its final stretch, but the task gets harder and more complex than before each day he wakes up, with pressure to restore stability, development and unity — a call he has repeatedly failed to address.

With elections set for 2026, Hassan Sheikh is more preoccupied with retaining his seat than protecting the stability and democratic growth and transition in the country, critics argue, while dismissing his nationalistic credentials.

Presently, the government in Mogadishu is fighting to impose constitutional changes, key among those introducing a presidential system and direct electoral model — an ideal which has been opposed by the opposition leaders who accuse him of plans to extend his term.

The efforts to mobilise opposition leaders and some member states for roundtable talks were futile, with the team accusing him of a lack of 'commitment and transparency' while calling for genuine talks. He was left alone with activists and selected leaders from Hirshabelle, Galmadug and Southwest.

The failure by Villa Somalia to cement electoral conflict could only widen the rifts and put the country in a limbo, analysts say. They now want him to yield to the opposition stance and embrace genuine dialogue for survival — an idea regime supporters oppose.

And the standoff has led to the escalation of Al-Shabaab attacks across the country, with the militants taking advantage of the political feud to target military bases, government installations and civilians, leading to many deaths recently.

For instance, the militants managed to retake Adan Yabaal, a strategic location in central regions, further weakening the Somali National Army (SNA). Similar advances have been made in the Bay region, where Al-Shabaab ran over a military outpost.

The group seems to be in a free attacking mode even as national troops retreat on various frontlines. Critics maintain that the losses are a result of endless squabbles in government, leading to misplacement of priorities by national leadership.

Some cases of infiltration by Al-Shabaab in the Somali National Army have been recorded, further significantly affecting the fight against the group in central and southern regions. It is only the stable government of Puntland state that has managed to put ISIS militants at bay.

But the most vulnerable conflict could be the agitation by Somaliland, which goes unchecked. Both the Americans and the British are pushing for this agenda, a move that could compromise the single Somali policy, which has been the point of reference for decades.

“In a world that is becoming more unpredictable and unstable, the United Kingdom needs all the friends and allies it can get,” said Sir Gavin Williamson. “Somaliland has built a stable and democratic society against all the odds, and is a bastion of good governance in an otherwise volatile region.”

“Somaliland deserved recognition when it re-established its independence in 1991,” Williamson added. “The next best time to recognise Somaliland is now.”

The breakaway region of Somaliland is mounting a recognition campaign by reaching out to superpowers, with Hassan Sheikh Mohamud remaining unconcerned — there have been no attempts to restart the Ethiopia-Djibouti dialogue.

How this shall end would only define the legacy of Hassan Sheikh, whose consolidation of power has caused unparalleled anxiety and rebellion from both the locals and the opposition leaders across the Horn of Africa nation.

GAROWE ONLINE