In Galmudug, the problem with Somalia’s elections

EDITORIAL| Somalia’s Galmudug State will, by the end of Friday, know if they have a new Speaker of the local parliament, providing the next step to elect a federal-state president that will take after Ahmed Duale Gelle.

When 89 new lawmakers gather in Dhusamareb, the state capital, it could mark the end of a chaotic year in which the federal government and local factions played a see-saw to control the region.

Either that or it could open a new chapter of wrangles, dealing a blow on any plans to bring all regions on one political page in a country preparing for elections later this year.

“The situation is very fragile because of the local clan-based politics. You can’t really predict who the MPs will vote for. They belong to clans and have variant loyalties,” said Mohamed Abdirahman, a Senior Security Advisor to Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni.

“It could create animosity between the federal government and the local politicians,” he warned.

So what is the issue? Based on an earlier political calendar, Galmudug should have held election in July 2019. But political factions disagreed on when exactly a four-year term of the exiting leadership began.

Outgoing Galmudug President Ahmed Dualle Gelle Haaf, once thrown out with a faction MPs loyal to him, insisted that polls should be held in December 2021 because, in December 2017, he signed an IGAD-brokered power-sharing arrangement with moderate Sufi militia group Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jama‘a (ASWJ), essentially starting a new term in office.

Galmudug is one of the five federal states in Somalia. Others are Jubbaland, Hirshabelle, South-West and Puntland, some of them are currently at loggerheads with FGS over issues, including resource sharing, constitutional review process and modality of the next elections.

Politically and demographically cosmopolitan, Galmudug has people of diverse backgrounds, making it almost difficult to win without coalescing between the 11 clans. It is locally known as the heart of resistance against then Somali leader Siad Barre whose ouster plunged Somalia in the current incessant conflict 30 years ago.

Despite these credentials, Galmudug has been a trophy sought by both opposition and the federal government under President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and his Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire.

Since March last year, the region was technically been run by the federal government, weakening the incumbent leader Haaf whose opponents claim he has already run past his term. The election that started early this week with the voting in of MPs, is a result of negotiations and a reconciliation process led by Khaire, leading to a deal with ASWJ which means they would get 20 seats in the new parliament.

The 89-seat regional assembly on Friday voted to elected Villa Somalia-backed candidate Mohamed Nur Ga'al as the new speaker of the house after winning 54 votes against his close contender Abdinasir Aden, who garnered 34 votes in the first round of the ballot.  

Largely accepted by stakeholders, his critics charge he did so with his interest in mind, such that only his clansmen are in a contest for the presidency today.  

The candidates vying for Galmudug state president include Ahmed Abdi Kaariye [Qoorqoor], a former state minister for public works, who is receiving impressive support from FGS, Abdirahman Odowaa, a former interior minister and current member of the political party led by the ex-President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Others include Kamal Gutale of Wadajir party led by former Planning Minister Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame, and Abdullahi Wehliye said to be backed by ASWJ. They are all from the Habargidir clan.

From the outset, all the candidates now have to get votes from other clans, meaning they have to reach a coalition of some sort especially with those running for deputy presidency. But Galmudug is much like the politics of entire Somalia: Money, clan, personal interest and other factors play an influence.

President Ahmed Dualle Geelle Haaf has rejected the electoral plan, for example, seeing it as a ploy to stamp Mogadishu-based Government’s influence on the state, instead of giving it autonomy it deserves.

“For anyone to understand the enigmatical (sic) geopolitics of Somalia, it’s very pivotal to first understand the intricate politics of Galmudug. It took the federal government a lot of time to arrive at a détente and an election process that literally brings every entity on board, argued Abdimalik Abdullahi, commentator of Somali and Horn of Africa affairs in geopolitics, peace-building and governance, on his Twitter page this week.

Traditionally, clans went for each other’s throats in politics, land ownership and every other resource. They mainly pitied the Marehan, Dir, Habargadir clans, some of the main clans here.

Those violent episodes have died down recently especially after a deal between Haaf and ASWJ brought most folks on board, and the federal government got interested to control one more federal state after Hirshabelle and South-West.

That threat of instability, argued Abdullahi, is not over though.

“Just this week, tribal militias were fighting in the northern parts of Galgadud, Galmudug,” he later told Garowe Online, referring to one of the regions whose name provided the portmanteau Galmudug, the name of the state.

“Such incidents and the likelihood of it happening now and again mean no one can assure us that it is a done deal. This tribal animosity calls for true grassroots reconciliation.”

A call for reconciliation means Galmudug is much like Somalia itself. Ahead of the polls, the question of whether federal states will move as one with the federal government has stuck out like a sore thumb. Critics think both sides are moving on a pace that suits them. 

“Today, Somalia is more divided politically, compared to three years ago, before President Farmaajo took over (in 2017). As we head towards elections, we are having more polarization and Farmaajo is exploiting those divisions,” Idd Bedel Mohamed, a former diplomat who says he will contest in the next Somali presidential elections told Garowe Online.

Mohamed claimed Farmaajo has picked out Hirshabelle, South-West and now Galmudug for control, so he could isolate Puntland and Jubbaland (under Ahmed Madobe); which refused federal government directives on local elections and went ahead with their programs.

On Thursday, President Ahmed Madobe arrived in Bossaso, Puntland for a meeting with Puntland and Galmudug leaders, even though the latter’s state was holding elections.

“We are facing a toxic political climate and a chilling possibility of armed conflict as the country heads to elections in 2020.”

Officially, the federal government has argued for unity and working under federal law, even with autonomy, in defending its actions in states. But within the federal government itself, there could be divisions between Farmaajo and Khaire, with each having favourite candidates in Galmudug, for example.

“One can learn that it takes lots of efforts, subsequent compromises, blood and sweat to even conduct a simple local election in a complex context like Somalia,” Abdimalik told Garowe Online.

“The other important lesson that can be learnt from the Galmudug reconciliation and election process is that every Somali problem calls for a Somali solution. And the Federal government of Somalia should not only take the lead but also be nonpartisan and accommodative in its ventures.”

GAROWE ONLINE