Somalia: Yamamoto’s controversial policy could be what the doctor ordered

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EDITORIAL | The US Ambassador to Somalia Donald Yamamoto may be public enemy number one, depending on who you ask. But he may also be a stone the masons nearly rejected in Somalia.

In the past ten days, Mr. Yamamoto, the former Assistant Secretary of State for African affairs, has stoked fires of controversy in Galmudug, where he endorsed Ahmed Kariye Qoorqoor as a new State President.

Local Sunni group (Ahlu-Sunna Wal-Jamaah (ASWJ) and other contenders had in fact boycotted the polls arguing there was a predetermined candidate. The US, China, IGAD and the African Union all endorsed Qoorqoor.

Lately, though, he has asked everyone from the Federal Government of Somalia to federal states to work together on a common security goal.

“We recognize that Somalia is in a difficult phase in its journey towards democracy. While recent electoral processes were imperfect, we call on all Somalis to focus on reconciliation,” Yamamoto said in a statement released by the Embassy on Wednesday this week.

“By reaffirming reconciliation between the Somali Federal Government and the Member States, Somalia’s leaders will uphold their own commitments to increase political inclusion and pursue long-term peace, security, and stability for all Somalis.”

That call for unity though is not always acceptable in Somalia and Yamamoto may know. First, there are problems between President Mohamed Farmajo’s government and federal member states (FMS).

Farmajo refused to recognize the re-election of Ahmed Madobe in Jubaland citing faulty elections. He ordered a repeat election there which was never honored. He has problems with the leadership in Puntland.

In South West, opposition politicians accused him of imposing a candidate. In Galmudug, Qoorqoor became a controversial choice, despite the fact that he shares lineages with most of his opponents.

When Yamamoto called for FGS and FMS to work together, it may have been a technical endorsement of all leaders in charge; whether they recognize each other or not.

But this comment came just as the federal government in Somalia was deploying soldiers to Gedo, especially in Luuq in Jubbaland. Some flies on the wall have told Garowe Online that this bid was meant to secure an alternative capital in Jubaland from where Farmajo could create a parallel government in Jubaland which could ultimately weaken the administration of Ahmed Madobe.

Speculations were high on Thursday night that the intention was to target local forces loyal to fugitive Jubbaland politician Abdirashid Janaan, said to have escaped jail in Mogadishu and fled into Kenya.

The US is opposed to the idea of forming a parallel government in Jubbaland, though, and has been keen on having everyone accept the existing leadership as a starting point.

That defines the imperfections of Somali politics. But the question is whether politicians would sit down sooner to actually negotiate the electoral calendar, which should culminate in elections this year. Yamamoto did say credible elections depended on how the five states and the FGS would sit down and discuss.

“All parties should negotiate in good faith, resist the temptation to act as spoilers, and avoid destabilizing the political process in any way,” he cautioned.

Some analysts think Yamamoto’s controversial step has a longterm goal of convincing all stakeholders he is no one’s pocket yet.

“This is a step to find a dialogue between Mogadishu and Kismayu and Garowe. Accept the flawed elections in both Galmudug and Kismayu,” said Horn of Africa analyst Abdimalik Abdullahi, referring to the capitals of Jubbaland and Kismayu.

“Then reinvent the leadership forum to focus on election and security,” he added referring to a collapsed routine meeting of leaders of states and the federal government which was to help implement to security plan of Somalia. The last such meeting happened in June* in Puntland but led to no tangible goal.

In Somalia, there have been rare occurrences of political maturity. But everyone seems to know when a foreigner strays too much into local affairs. Yamamoto probably knew this last week when he endorsed Qoorqoor, even after local Sunni group AWJ protested.

Abdirashid Hashi, the Director of the Heritage Institute in Mogadishu, a local think-tank, said the decision by the US government, for now, maybe amenable to the aspirations of many people.

“We agree with the US Embassy in Somalia, on the necessity for mature politics in Somalia and we have been repeatedly reiterating compromise, cooperation and consensus-based politics is the only option available for Somali elite.

“Not doing that equals strengthening al-Shabaab and failing Somali citizens,” he tweeted on Wednesday.

Indeed, there are those who had accused Yamamoto of fanning the interests of his country, when he endorsed Qoorqoor in Galmudug.

Abdiwahab Shiekh Abdisamad, head of Nairobi-based Southlinks Consultancy had said that had “said a lot about where the US stands in the row between regional chiefs and Farmaajo.” And warned that other federal state presidents opposed to Farmaajo such as Abdullahi Deni in Puntland, Duale Haaf, the protesting ex-President of Galmudug and Ahmed Madobe, should be wary the US would mastermind their removal.

In that case, warned Abdirahman Abdishakur, leader of the Wadajir Party, Al-Shabaab will win twice. Referring to the deployment in Gedo, and the chaos that had ensued in Galmudug capital Dhusamareb, it could take away the attention of everyone on al-Shabaab, allowing the group to regenerate.

“Does this not mean that the government is doing Al-Shabaab’s work for them?” he posed.

So, should the US be trusted? It could be yes and no. Some analysts think the US position has always been how to unify the FGS and FMS, regardless of the method used. “The American position is how to bring together all regional stated and the federal government. S

“So if the federal government can use the force of through rigged election, the Americans won’t consider the process, they will consider the outcome,” argued Abdalla Ibrahim, Director of the East Africa Centre for Research and Strategic Studies.

With western countries tired of the turn-coat traits among politicians, Ibrahim said donors may have to go for what is good for Somalia, rather than relying on personalities.

“All those partners witnessed the elections and duly congratulated the winner. But our politicians don’t have an honest stand, they change from time to time.” In Galmudug, Haaf and ASWJ had participated in the parliamentary elections, he argued, so when they withdrew from the presidential contest, there was still quorum to conduct the vote.

“So who is wrong here? USA, Haaf or ASWJ?”

There are those who think the US may have given fuel to Farmaajo to go hammer and tongs at renegade federal leaders. “It seems Farmaajo is not cooling down. He sounds like always having a green light from the US. But let’s see in the coming days if things remain the same,” Mohamed Hassan Idriss, Somali Federal MP from Jubbaland said.

“I think it is getting harder for him since we are very alert with Yamamoto’s steps towards Somalia. I mean, Yamamoto's policy to Somalia will no longer be persuasive to the rest of the nation.”

The US has been involved in Somalia since the 1940s and became stronger around 1977 as then despot Siad Barre sought support in the Ogaden War, to counter Ethiopia’s government then supported by the Soviet Union.

The political coalition, the Forum for National Parties (FNP) argued the move to hold forced elections was emblematic of Farmaj's poor record but charged the US diplomat was complicit.

“Yamamoto contradicts the core principles of good governance and promotion of democracy that are pillars of US Foreign Policy,” they charged. They were yet to comment on the call to support every elected federal-state president though.

GAROWE ONLINE

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