Did Somalia support Ethiopia's "two-waters" strategy?

MOGADISHU, Somalia - A state-run think tank from Ethiopia says Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud supports a two-waters strategy, including the Nile River dam and access to the Red Sea, in what could prove to raise tensions in the country.

According to Ethiopia’s Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA), Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s recent stance could significantly improve relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, but with potential repercussions for the country’s politics.

The claim goes further than anything Somali officials have said in public. The analysis by IFA researcher Miftah Mohammed Kemal leans heavily on two moments in 2025.

First is Mohamud’s decision to attend the GERD inauguration on 9 September, when Ethiopia formally opened its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. He joined the ceremony at the invitation of Abiy Ahmed.

In another instance, during a televised interview with Saudi-owned Al Arabiya days later. In the interview, Mohamud described the GERD as “pivotal” for development in the Horn of Africa and welcomed dialogue around the dam’s operation, according to regional coverage of the remarks.

The IFA paper stitches those signals together. It says Mohamud’s language shows Somalia now sees the GERD as a “regional hub for power connectivity”, and that his comments on Ethiopia’s Red Sea ambitions amount to endorsement of Addis Ababa’s long-running quest for sea access.

That reading sits inside Ethiopia’s broader “two waters” doctrine, a strategic narrative that links control of Nile waters at the GERD with renewed access to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Somalia had expressed displeasure with Ethiopia after Abiy Ahmed signed an agreement with Somaliland, which could give the country 20 kilometres of the Red Sea for the construction of a port and a military base. Somalia went wild against Ethiopia.

For long spells, diplomatic relationships between the two countries were severely affected. However, it took the effort of Turkey to mediate, reaching a temporary settlement. Should Hassan Sheikh support the efforts of Ethiopia, opposition politicians could question his suitability as president.

According to a Horn Review analysis, the Somali leader welcomed dialogue on Ethiopia’s Red Sea concerns yet warned that any arrangement must respect “universally accepted standards” and the territorial integrity of all states.

That position is consistent with Mogadishu’s stance since the Somaliland deal: Ethiopia can negotiate commercial access with Somalia’s federal government, officials say, but not through separate agreements that appear to recognise Somaliland’s statehood.

Somalia has not publicly adopted the language of a “two waters” doctrine. Officials tend instead to describe their diplomacy as a balance between defending borders, keeping regional routes open, and drawing in investment for ports, power, and transport.

GAROWE ONLINE