Turkish Intelligence Warns of “Unprecedented Fragility” in Somalia

ANKARA, Turkey - A report prepared by the Turkish intelligence academy, dubbed “A Multidimensional Partnership Model,” has warned of unprecedented fragility in the country, citing the growing Al-Shabaab threat, political fragmentation, institutional weakness, external pressures, and economic strain as the main causes.

While acknowledging the gains made in the Turkish-Somalia relationship, the report warns that the environment in which this model operates is marked by what analysts describe as hard risks that will determine the trajectory of both Somalia’s stability and the bilateral relationship.

The report names Al-Shabaab as a major obstacle to Somalia’s stability, with the group reportedly controlling rural areas. While joint offensives gained momentum in 2022, the report states, the country was unable to sustain operations in subsequent years.

A smaller Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) faction in Puntland adds another destabilizing layer, even if its reach is comparatively limited. The assessment warns that the Somali National Army is still unable to secure the country without external backing.

The incomplete constitutional order is another underlying factor, the report said, noting the fragile relationship between the federal government and member states, which are integral in Somalia’s rebuilding process.

"This has produced recurring confrontations over elections and revenue control, particularly with Puntland and Jubaland," reads the report.

The report says these disputes stall national decision-making and directly affect Turkey’s development projects, which depend on stable coordination between central and regional authorities.

The weak state institutions are also blamed for instability. Analysts describe what they call a governance crisis marked by insufficient administrative capacity, limited oversight systems, and donor dependence that prevents Somalia from sustaining basic services on its own.

"The intelligence review acknowledges that debt relief secured through IMF and World Bank reforms is a significant step, but notes that Somalia still lacks the financial autonomy needed for long-term stability. Persistent delays in procurement and project execution remain a major barrier to progress."

The intelligence report warns that future climate pressures could trigger internal displacement at levels that overwhelm state institutions and add volatility to an already fragile security landscape. Geopolitical pressures with information warfare are also stated as a risk factor.

While the intelligence assessment mentions progress, including infrastructure improvements in Mogadishu, security cooperation that could strengthen the Somali army by 2030, and new economic opportunities through East African Community membership, it argues that these gains remain vulnerable to the five core risks shaping the country’s trajectory.

Turkey has steadily expanded its political, economic, and military footprint in Somalia since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Mogadishu in 2011.

"Its engagement spans defense, infrastructure, healthcare, and humanitarian aid, with Camp TURKSOM in Mogadishu serving as Turkey’s largest overseas military training base, having trained over 15,000 Somali troops. Turkish companies also operate key infrastructure, including Aden Adde International Airport and the Port of Mogadishu," reads the report.

Parliamentary discussions in Turkey pointed to the strategic nature of this relationship, with officials comparing Somalia to Turkey’s approach in Syria: first stabilizing security, then opening opportunities for Turkish business.

The two countries have exchanged land for embassy compounds, with Turkey currently building a new Somali Embassy in Ankara, following the construction of its largest embassy abroad in Mogadishu, says the report.

Turkey’s total financial and developmental assistance to Somalia is estimated at over $1 billion, including humanitarian aid and debt relief. However, Turkish media reports have claimed that much of this aid is funneled to companies close to Erdogan operating in Somalia, sparking criticism that the government may be using its foreign engagement to financially benefit select domestic business interests.

Despite a dip in bilateral trade from $426 million in 2023 to $384 million in 2024, Turkey remains Somalia’s leading foreign investor. Turkey’s activities have also raised international concern: UN investigators in 2022 found that Turkey had supplied armed drones to Somalia without UN approval, potentially violating international sanctions.

Critics argue that these developments suggest Turkey’s presence in Somalia may serve both strategic and domestic political-economic interests. Nordic Monitor previously published the full text of a wide-ranging hydrocarbons agreement between Turkey and Somalia following its submission to the Turkish Parliament for ratification on April 22, 2025.

The release of the document provided the first detailed insight into the scope, terms, and strategic intentions behind Ankara’s deepening energy and defense partnership with Mogadishu. According to the agreement, Turkey has secured sweeping operational and financial privileges.

GAROWE ONLINE