Caged and having lost Mogadishu, Farmajo's limited options to save "legacy"

MOGADISHU, Somalia | The last four months have been hectic for Somalia's President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, in what could define his tenure as either a statesman or an imperial dictator, striving to continue staying at the helm, despite his dwindling fortunes.

With the international community pressure and that from the opposition, and on the brink of losing Mogadishu to forces loyal to the opposition, there is no doubt that President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo is undoubtedly running out of options and could exit as one of the worst presidents in the history of Somalia.

Having rescinded his decision to extend the term, Farmajo has since allowed Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble to organize free and fair elections. Still, there are doubts that the process will succeed due to the president's "unseen" hands in calling shots.

Guled Ahmed, a non-resident scholar at Middle East Institute [MEI], a renewable energy and water infrastructure expert and an entrepreneur, believes Farmajo should make quick decisions to save Somalia from plunging into civil war, citing the president's loss within the Somali National Army [SNA].

"Farmaajo must sign a legal document stating that he is only a candidate and transfer total executive power to the caretaker PM, as his predecessors did, including control of the security apparatus," he says. "If he fails to do so, sanctions should be imposed on him and his enablers until he exits the political arena."

Even though Farmaajo claims to have delegated the election preparations to his PM, serious concerns remain. On May 2, the Federal Member State of Jubaland issued a statement demanding that he hand over command of the security forces to Roble.

This is in line with a precedent set by his predecessor Hassan Sheikh, who transferred executive power to his then-Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid ahead of the 2017 elections. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud decided following similar pressure to what Farmajo is currently facing.

The caretaker PM and Somalia's donors, Ahmed notes, must begin to remove all security sector officials involved in attacks on the opposition, including intelligence chief Yasin, the interior minister, and the chief of the army, and quarantine tribal units (including the majority of the Haramcad, Duufaan, and Gorgor units, which are mainly Farmaajo clan militias) that have committed atrocities in Mogadishu and beyond.

A multilateral approach must be implemented by coordinating with the EU, Canada, and Australia to prevent Qatar and Eritrea, two of Farmaajo’s key backers and allies, from interfering in Somalia’s election. "This will require imposing targeted sanctions on all Somali officials with dual citizenship who have committed crimes such as corruption and human rights violations at all levels of government, including those with EU, Canadian, and Australian passports," he avers.

Also, he said, the AU and Somalia’s donors should set up an independent U.N. human rights committee to investigate the Feb. 19 alleged assassination attempts, the April 25 violence, and the subsequent population displacement and crimes committed by the Farmaajo government, so the lesson is learned that any future Somali leaders who do the same will be held accountable.

"Somalia’s donors should not release any budgetary support to the Farmaajo government in the run-up to the elections as the money may be used to rig it. Alternatively, donors should open a special account to fund election implementation that an independent committee oversees, and they should closely monitor the flow of money," Ahmed argued.

The peaceful transfer of power

African remains one of the notorious continents where peaceful transfer of power is rare. There are only very few cases where incumbents have previously agreed to leave power after losing in a free and fair election, notably in modern-day Ghana and perhaps in Malawi.

In most cases, sitting presidents mutilate the constitution to continue staying in office, serve a "forced" two terms, or even hand over to their preferred candidates. This trend has often been encouraged by Western countries with clandestine interests in Africa.

For Farmajo, however, his term has already expired, and there are no signs of elections, leading to the current electoral impasse that threatens to erode gains made in the country. Somalia has struggled with instability for over three decades since the ouster of Siad Barre.

Additional measures need to be taken to ensure a peaceful election and transfer of power in Somalia. Farmaajo’s track record on this front is worrying, says Ahmed, who now wants the leadership to be guided by nationalism.

There were allegations of fraud over a local housing race in which he ran in Buffalo, New York, in 1994. Recent reporting by The New York Times pointed to a troubling parallel from 2007 when several Somali community leaders in Buffalo accused him of manipulation and an attempted power grab for refusing to step down from a community leadership role when his term ended.

His opponents see these as an example of how far he might be willing to go to hold onto power, especially when the stakes are much higher. The president has chosen to remain mute but issue statements through trusted aides.

The African Union has picked former Ghanaian President John Mahama to mediate the crisis. Still, Villa Somalia, which had initially asked for help, is now opposed to the envoy over his "ties" with Kenya. Mogadishu has been accusing Nairobi of meddling in her internal politics, a claim which Kenya dismisses as "tired propaganda."

Rigging concerns in Somalia

One of the major concerns right now is the possibility of Farmajo rigging elections in the country. This, the opposition argues, is manifested in his reluctance to hold talks, his attempt to extend the term, and the most recent derailing of implementation of the September 17 pre-election deal.

While Farmaajo has officially handed over election preparations to Roble, there is a widespread popular belief that he remains in control. “Farmaajo still rules everything … Roble is just his remote control,” one Mogadishu shopkeeper told Reuters.

The EU has reportedly suspended Somalia's budgetary support since mid-2020 over concerns about potential election rigging, alongside the treatment of journalists and human rights violations. There are additional concerns over Somalia’s intelligence chief Fahad Yasin, who allegedly has links to al-Shabab and the Qatari-funded security apparatus.

Yasin, a close associate of Farmajo, is often accused of misusing the military and state intelligence to the benefit of the current administration. There have been previous calls to have him resign, but he has often refused to respond to a litany of allegations against him.

In the run-up to the election, there are genuine worries that Farmaajo may try to manipulate the electoral process through intimidation, bribery, or even outright rigging to stay in power. It's one thing for Somalia’s donors to insist on the need for transparency. Still, it is impossible to have that unless steps are taken to build trust and accountability, like having Farmaajo hand over control of the security apparatus.

Anything else will delay the inevitable return to violent clashes. Holding Farmaajo and his enablers accountable and demanding his prompt exit is the only guarantee of a free and fair election and an eventual peaceful transfer of power in Somalia, Ahmed notes.

There are reports that the opposition forces could be regrouping to take on government loyalists in Mogadishu, even after agreeing to return to their bases. On May 20, the country's leadership is expected to have a pre-election conference, but such indications seem to be diminishing because Roble is yet to issue a communique. 

GAROWE ONLINE